This might look a bit complicated to start with - and that's for good reason. Markets are complicated.
Its easy to make something complicated. It's hard to make something simple. I've attempted to simplify what's going on - without looking at chart patterns. These are really good at explaining what's going on, then a breakout occurs either before or after the pattern formed, which means a pattern is simply a language to optimise explain what happened historically, or what's about to happen. I have no data to say how often patterns succeed or fail, which is why I'm sceptical of them.
I've drawn long-term support trends, and mixed them with with shorter-term support and resistance trends. The longer-term trends are browner, and the shorter term trends are greener. The thicker line which represents the sum total of the angles of the uptrends and downtrends (not weighted in any way - which is probably a weakness in my thinking). This makes a clear downward trend for the bitcoin price in the coming weeks/months. Where trend lines cross, there are triangles and quadrants of what I think are degrees of certainty for the price range of Bitcoin in the coming months. I have no idea whether a triangle or a quadrant is significant, or irrelevant in this context. Of course, lines all over the place mean nothing, but I think where more lines intersect, there's a greater chance the price range will fall into those ranges.
As the future pans out, more lines will need to be drawn, and the projection will change.
Thoughts, anyone?
Its easy to make something complicated. It's hard to make something simple. I've attempted to simplify what's going on - without looking at chart patterns. These are really good at explaining what's going on, then a breakout occurs either before or after the pattern formed, which means a pattern is simply a language to optimise explain what happened historically, or what's about to happen. I have no data to say how often patterns succeed or fail, which is why I'm sceptical of them.
I've drawn long-term support trends, and mixed them with with shorter-term support and resistance trends. The longer-term trends are browner, and the shorter term trends are greener. The thicker line which represents the sum total of the angles of the uptrends and downtrends (not weighted in any way - which is probably a weakness in my thinking). This makes a clear downward trend for the bitcoin price in the coming weeks/months. Where trend lines cross, there are triangles and quadrants of what I think are degrees of certainty for the price range of Bitcoin in the coming months. I have no idea whether a triangle or a quadrant is significant, or irrelevant in this context. Of course, lines all over the place mean nothing, but I think where more lines intersect, there's a greater chance the price range will fall into those ranges.
As the future pans out, more lines will need to be drawn, and the projection will change.
Thoughts, anyone?