Simple look at fibonnachi and how they may relate to BTC bottom

I thought I'd compare some Fibonacci numbers to previous bull/ bear runs in BTC for my own interest and also line up with the longer term log trendline. I also added in the lesser used .886 fibb level which lines up nicely with the bottoms in 2013 and 2015, depending on how you choose to line the fibbs up! In TA you can make most ideas work if you try! I also tried to work out where the spike throughs went. Now this isn't a fibb number at all but in both 2013 and 2015 we retraced ~94% of the run. I've applied this to the 2017 bull run and if history repeats itself on this basis we shouldn't get much lower than 4900-4000 with the long term trendline also acting as nice support.

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2015 bottom

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2013 bottom

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Also this gives us a bit of a timeframe to go on. If the long term trendline is to be supportive then we have at latest to go to mid September before turning, but I'd expect this to play out before. My best guess is end of July/ early August.