It's One Of Those "Do Or Die" Moments
已更新
Hey everyone, so things have essentially gone according to my evil plan. Bitcoin got rejected before it could make an equal high or new high, and altcoins have drifted lower towards the bottom trendline of their uptrend channel. You can see that the total altcoin market cap wicked precisely off that trendline today. If we're assuming a bull market, this is the perfect spot to buy alts for the long term, in my opinion. I also have a feeling we're seeing a simultaneous peak for altcoin capitulation and Bitcoin maximalism. The one thing that worries me is that some alts are continuing to make new lows against Bitcoin, while others are still looking fine. It looks like some people may have shorted on Binance as soon as margin trading opened last night, which would have contributed to the big drop. I personally think there were some insiders who profited heavily over the last several days. Things have looked more manipulated than usual, which is saying something considering this is crypto.
Some alts really may not go up if and when alt season begins. Or - whales are just hitting some serious stop losses and taking advantage of traders' emotions, particularly on established coins. I think it's much easier to force people out of positions on those, since the fear is much higher that they will die out. In the past, we've seen most alts go up together during a true alt season. So we will have to see if this time is different, and if the market has been "tamed."
Speaking of emotions, I'm going to take a much needed break from charting over the next several days. I'm actually proud of my recent analysis (more so than anything I've posted in the past). You can see my recent posts linked at bottom, including the one where I called the short from 13.7K. Before I take a break though, I will lay out the market conditions as I see them. Here are the only things I think we need to know, in order to have an accurate view of what's going on:
1) If big alts like ETH and XRP are to remain bullish, I'd expect them to not go much lower than current levels. If they have sustained breakdowns here (particularly ETH), that would spell bad news across the board. This may even cause people in Bitcoin to capitulate, ending the bullish trend for the whole market. The altcoin trendline needs to hold, but what I do not know is whether or not Bitcoin will continue to outpace alts in the near term. Alts can still move slowly up along the trendline, or they can make an enormous bounce. I'd prefer an enormous bounce, but that's just my silly bias and has nothing to do with what will actually happen.
2) Bitcoin needs to remain in the channel (orange). Because of the sensitive nature of altcoins at the moment, I honestly don't think it has much room to go down, if the market is going to remain bullish. The only way Bitcoin can head to the bottom of its channel at the present time, is if a LOT of money pours back into altcoins.
3) If Bitcoin can break out above the channel resistance (seems unlikely in the near term, but you never know), then the blow-off phase for the bull market will probably begin, and I think we will most likely test our ATH.
4) If we're repeating July 2016 (you can watch my most recent video to see the fractal), I expect Bitcoin to continue to hold current levels and go sideways until alts catch up on their ratios. Only then can I see Bitcoin potentially testing support below 10K.
For the bullish case on alts, it's interesting to note that the last time we touched the bottom of the uptrend channel, XRP made a big jump from $0.28 to $0.48 in a very short amount of time. I also recently forecasted a move down for XRPUSD before an attempt to break out once and for all (yellow squiggle)
Here's the July 2016 fractal that I discovered (same orange channel resistance!)
Anyway, nothing I say should be taken as financial advice. There are a lot of resources out there, and you should always come to your own conclusions. Anything can happen, and anyone claiming to know exactly what's in store is full of it. Speaking in absolutes is nonsense. What I do is carefully observe the market, draw lines, and do my best to make connections where others may not. You can bet everyone else is trying to make connections and come to conclusions. My responsibility as a hobby analyst is to try to come to those conclusions before everyone else does.
Good luck!
-Victor Cobra
Some alts really may not go up if and when alt season begins. Or - whales are just hitting some serious stop losses and taking advantage of traders' emotions, particularly on established coins. I think it's much easier to force people out of positions on those, since the fear is much higher that they will die out. In the past, we've seen most alts go up together during a true alt season. So we will have to see if this time is different, and if the market has been "tamed."
Speaking of emotions, I'm going to take a much needed break from charting over the next several days. I'm actually proud of my recent analysis (more so than anything I've posted in the past). You can see my recent posts linked at bottom, including the one where I called the short from 13.7K. Before I take a break though, I will lay out the market conditions as I see them. Here are the only things I think we need to know, in order to have an accurate view of what's going on:
1) If big alts like ETH and XRP are to remain bullish, I'd expect them to not go much lower than current levels. If they have sustained breakdowns here (particularly ETH), that would spell bad news across the board. This may even cause people in Bitcoin to capitulate, ending the bullish trend for the whole market. The altcoin trendline needs to hold, but what I do not know is whether or not Bitcoin will continue to outpace alts in the near term. Alts can still move slowly up along the trendline, or they can make an enormous bounce. I'd prefer an enormous bounce, but that's just my silly bias and has nothing to do with what will actually happen.
2) Bitcoin needs to remain in the channel (orange). Because of the sensitive nature of altcoins at the moment, I honestly don't think it has much room to go down, if the market is going to remain bullish. The only way Bitcoin can head to the bottom of its channel at the present time, is if a LOT of money pours back into altcoins.
3) If Bitcoin can break out above the channel resistance (seems unlikely in the near term, but you never know), then the blow-off phase for the bull market will probably begin, and I think we will most likely test our ATH.
4) If we're repeating July 2016 (you can watch my most recent video to see the fractal), I expect Bitcoin to continue to hold current levels and go sideways until alts catch up on their ratios. Only then can I see Bitcoin potentially testing support below 10K.
For the bullish case on alts, it's interesting to note that the last time we touched the bottom of the uptrend channel, XRP made a big jump from $0.28 to $0.48 in a very short amount of time. I also recently forecasted a move down for XRPUSD before an attempt to break out once and for all (yellow squiggle)
Here's the July 2016 fractal that I discovered (same orange channel resistance!)
Anyway, nothing I say should be taken as financial advice. There are a lot of resources out there, and you should always come to your own conclusions. Anything can happen, and anyone claiming to know exactly what's in store is full of it. Speaking in absolutes is nonsense. What I do is carefully observe the market, draw lines, and do my best to make connections where others may not. You can bet everyone else is trying to make connections and come to conclusions. My responsibility as a hobby analyst is to try to come to those conclusions before everyone else does.
Good luck!
-Victor Cobra
注释
Alts have now broken below the trendline for the first time since March 2017. Very interesting, since that's what began the crazy altcoin bull run from 2017 in the first place. If our daily candle closes below the trendline, it probably wouldn't be good for the market as a whole. 注释
This will only look bullish if alts can get bought up and hold back above that trendline. Otherwise, this is the most bearish development we've had in a while for the market.注释
As you can see, we've already deviated from the fractal a bit. However, it's important to note that Bitcoin has still not gone below the initial low from the selloff. Alts broke down out of their channel though, so we will have to see if they can get back inside it. If that happens, it would be extremely bullish. 注释
Looks like we've invalidated the 2016 fractal, so obviously things will be playing out differently. It's possible that the market sees some new lows later this year, particularly if Bitcoin can't hold the channel and if alts continue to drop from current levels.注释
Interestingly, the total crypto market cap is following the path I outlined for it back in April, with a top around 300B or above and then a move down to test the bottom of the channel. 
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