Overnight Bitcoin did eventually break down out of the continuation pattern it was tracking and began to fall away again. It came right back down to retest the lows again but it held up, creating another intermediate , showing loss of downside momentum and that it was safe to buy again with stops under the lows. Bad timing for this to happen overnight as it was a fine signal to trade off. Such is the life of a Bitcoin hunter. Sometimes.
If you were around for the and were able to reverse or just get long again from there you did very very well. So day traders have had the best of it for the last 24 hours or so. Bitcoin is now probing resistance from the upper parallel of the new continuation pattern it has started to form overnight as well as fixed resistance at 10108 on Bitfinex.
It's therefore vulverable right now and day traders are closing out their longs at the obvious spot, looking to buy back from lower again or if that trick fails, they will buy again once 10120 has been broken above for move to 10448 and then 10680. We can follow that break higher when it comes. Until then we watch and wait. No point in chasing this from here yet. But technically it has made a now. All it needs to do next is break above 10120 to confirm the and also a higher high. Until it does Bitcoin is effectively range trading. Useful for day traders but not for the rest. We will follow long when we get the signal with stops about 100 lower or consider buying from the lower parallel if retested soon with stops below the parallel.
Coinbase Chart Update
Testing the lower parallel
It must hold up now - speccy buy because the stop is so close - otherwise we wait to see 10125 broken on Bitfinex to go long or add
Bitstamp Chart Update
Coinbase Chart Update
So far today, this is still not a good look. To make a little pennant under the last low to left is not exactly bullish behaviour. Now it's broken a little higher but it's looking like it will now morph into a bear flag and maybe a longer lasting continuation pattern within the small rising parallels. Have have zero interest in buying right now even though it's likely to push a little higher for a little longer yet.
At some point the lower parallel of the pattern will most likely give way at which point it's another short - back to 9050 on Coinbase as a minimum first target. It should then eventually break down in stages through the blue supports to 7861 and then 7584 where it should get a good tradeable bounce right back up to current levels where it will come back off again once more.
But we still need a Plan B If wrong
This is Bitcoin and it keeps on getting itself out of really tight corners - in fact whenever I write about Bitcoin in this Prison Break type way it always makes an escape - maybe it will manage the impossible again.
To make any such escape it will first have to break the upper parallel of the flag/continuation pattern around 9514 on Coinbase - which looks unlikely as things stand. and then bust above the big falling parallel, and the last line of defense by the bears by that stage. That break would be a surprise but it can be followed with stops under the break level or on a successful retest of the same parallel from above once broken.
So far the entire decline is pretty sketchy and the parallels don't feel like they've finished forming yet - more as they do
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Thursday Price Action and Trade Points So Far
It's still effectively neutral but not bearish unless it breaks
below the upper (falling) parallel, which we could short back
towards the lows if it were to happen
If you were slick enough to catch that break it's time to drop
the stop right above its ass now and at highest at 9505 for now
After breaking the support line at 9466 it is likely to fall to
7385 in stages - already on next blue support line now - and failing.
Stay short and drop stop again to 9370 - or can close out as
the line is holding for now...but it's likely to break lower again
Spikes under price on 15 minute showingtghe beginnings of a
counter rally but as with the last one it's not likely to get very
far before it falls away again. It has at least found support
from the old structure highs but it doesn't look stable yet.
This is going to present a great opportunity at some point over
the next 24 hours or so to get long for a decent rally. Patience
for now - the opposite of FOMO.
Bitstamp Close Up
Bitstamp Bigger Shot
Coinbase Chart Bigger Picure
Coinbase Close Up
Bitfinex Close Up
Bitfinex Bigger Shot