I took the time to review every crash avaliable on TD with bitstamp exchange, since march 2015 on 4H, with the same methodology on each one:
So I got this:
March, August 2015:
November 2015, July 2016:
January, March, June 2017:
After checking how much it rebound inside the 1.618 Fib circle almost all ABCDE crashes rebound to 0.5 standard Fibonacci while one crash rebounded to the 0.786 and other to the 1.0 Fib. So based on this I think the most conservative and with higher probability is a rebound to the 0.5 Fib and them the market will keep swinging as always but outside the 1.618 circle Fib.
- Apply the circle fib on all extension of crash with the 1.618 level;
- Apply standard Fibonacci to read the rebound;
- Check position of inner 0.236 fib circle in relation to the center of the crash;
- Check if crash is ABC or ABCDE;
- Check duration of the crash;
So I got this:
March, August 2015:
November 2015, July 2016:
January, March, June 2017:
After checking how much it rebound inside the 1.618 Fib circle almost all ABCDE crashes rebound to 0.5 standard Fibonacci while one crash rebounded to the 0.786 and other to the 1.0 Fib. So based on this I think the most conservative and with higher probability is a rebound to the 0.5 Fib and them the market will keep swinging as always but outside the 1.618 circle Fib.
评论:
Check my view for a larger BIG picture on related ideas or here:
