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Bitcoin, Short Term - Are We Near The End Of Consolidation?

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Here's an important Bitcoin update. We've retraced towards the $8400 area, as I've been saying was a possibility. In my recent market update video, I suspected that a bit more downside was more likely, simply because I wasn't seeing enough confirmation that we'd hit a bottom (based on volume). The higher probability move, as I said in that video, was a move towards slightly lower levels. On my chart, I marked the $8700 and $8400 as important horizontal support. Given these developments, it now seems that Bitcoin is trapped in a downtrend within a larger downtrend. Wonderful, right? It's actually quite nice because it gives us some pretty clear TA to work with. It also presents the possibility that this is still a bull flag, though time seems to be running out.

Anyway, now that Bitcoin is in the $8400 area, we need to figure out the next high probability move. If buyers can take advantage of relatively low sell volume, I think we first need to tackle the smaller downtrend channel resistance, currently near $8900. A move towards at least $8900 will become more likely if we observe buy volume starting to increase. We're actually seeing a bit of seller exhaustion right now, on the 15 minute timeframe. Zoomed out on the 15m chart, we can also see that this is the strongest buying reaction from a dump we've seen in quite a while:

Zoomed in, there's hardly any seller follow-through (yet):

These are the first signs I like to look for, when trying to anticipate some sort of reversal. Here's the larger downtrend as well, for your viewing pleasure:

Once we get above the smaller downtrend, we will need to get back above the psychologically important $9100 level and the 200d MA. If those milestones are achieved (they can even be achieved in one impulse), Bitcoin will then need to tackle the main downtrend since June and the resistances that lie above it. 10.8K was a major pivot area this past summer, so I'm showing it as a potential target.

Many mid-cap alts I've been following still look strong, though big caps remain flat. This is why I still feel cautiously bullish here. What I want to see is ETH hold $177-180 and XRP hold $0.25-$0.26. It's also impressive that XLM has held above previously broken yearly support at $0.071, and that NEO is still well above $11. This is all despite Bitcoin floundering around and drifting lower. In terms of negative developments, we are again below the long term trends for the total crypto market and TOTAL2. We are also now below the pivotal $230 Billion valuation for the crypto market. If we're going to bounce soon, I'd really like the big caps to make some strong moves. That includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, etc.

In summary, I think this could be the end of consolidation. What this means, is that if we break out to the upside, we could exit the bigger downtrend once and for all, perhaps even moving on to retest well before the Bitcoin halving. But we should be wary. If you watch my most recent video from yesterday, you'll see why the market is in a very sensitive position right now. There are major resistances for many cryptos just overhead. Can we break them and go full bulltard? Let's find out.

This is not financial advice. This is for speculation, education, and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra

注释

So it seems that this idea is invalidated for now, since we failed to hold support. We've now formed a steeper downtrend channel, which just shows that buyers have failed to show up, and that we could continue accelerating to the downside if we don't find demand between $7.8 and 8K.

注释

Here's something interesting I just noticed on the linear chart. We've already broken the downtrend and if we bounce here, we have successfully tested it as support: