Hey guys, here's a follow up on my original post from July, regarding the similarities between many altcoins and the bottoming period for Bitcoin in 2015. Sentiment-wise, things are still very similar. As time has gone by, alts actually decided to retest some of their bear market lows (like NANO, VET, and NEO), while others even made new lows (XRP and XLM). But since then, we've seen some pretty strong bounces. I outlined this possibility back in July with this post:
Please feel free to skip to the chart comparison section if you don't want to read this lengthly post.
Part I: Analysis Overview
I talked about why I thought Bitcoin Dominance was about to top out this summer. You can see that by reviewing some of my posts, linked at bottom. A lot of it simply has to do with basic logic: Some people made a huge amount of profit on Bitcoin from the rise to $13.8K this year. . In particular, a lot of leveraged profit was likely made on the second top at $13K, after the first bounce from $10K. This was a manipulated second top (I actually saw it happening; fake buy walls were artificially pushing the price up). I suggested that even a small amount of this profit could be entering altcoin positions soon. Since then, we've seen alt/Bitcoin ratios rise on every Bitcoin drop, which implies that money is actually flowing into alts at these prices. Are buyers accumulating in preparation for a break of these bottoming ranges? Or are they trying to make as much Bitcoin as possible before the halving? I'm making an effort to figure it out.
Many altcoins are now back above major yearly support levels. Some are already 100-200% up. Due to the emotional/speculative nature of this market, I don't expect the majority of the money to flow in until AFTER these alts actually break their highs from June and exit these ranges. People really need convincing. Unfortunately, retail traders hardly ever enter the majority of their positions close to bottom. We see that with volume. This is why volume doesn't usually peak until we're close to a top. I don't plan on selling my alts for Bitcoin or fiat until I see some truly enormous volume (10K+ BTC daily volume for an individual pair on Binance, for example).
Anyway, I'm going to again display a few chart comparisons, showing what would happen if some of these promising altcoins tried to make it out of their current ranges, after "bottoming" for over a year. A mark-up from these ranges would likely be significant (for the alts that make it). For the weaker looking alts, particularly low-caps that have declined over 90% in BTC value since April––they may never make it out of their ranges, although they can experience pump & dumps here and there. For example, even if GVT moved up 10X from here, it would only be back to previous major support. In contrast, XLM only needs to go another 100% to be back to major broken support. And that's even with XLM being the worst performer in the top 10 this year.
Part II: Chart Comparisons Explained
In the rest of this analysis, I'm going to post a few charts comparing various alts to Bitcoin's bottom from 2015, and what could happen if they break their ranges. We don't know how high they can go, but I don't have much faith that the crypto market can see a new ATH in terms of valuation within the next couple of years. Instead, I think many alts that declined 90% or more can simply get back to 25-50% away from their ATH, as the overall market approaches the $500-700B range. I'll obviously revise my outlook as conditions change, but right now I'm projecting a large move up for the coins that are here to stay, followed by a drop and a couple years of consolidation as Bitcoin prepares to finally breach its all-time-high. During this period (if it happens), I hope to make some extra cash by trading around profits from the rise. If Bitcoin can break $20K on the next wave up, my outlook will change, but I don't really expect it to make it much past the June 2019 high. You can see why in my most recent "Market Cycle" video. I also must emphasize that this entire scenario can fail if the total crypto market cap breaks its long term trend at CURRENT levels, and particularly if it can't hold above $230 Billion. I've talked about the significance of that level in my videos as well.
Full disclosure: The coins I'm including in this post are ones that I own. That's not to say other strong cryptocurrencies can't do the same, but this account is also a record of my personal investments/trades, and it'll be fun to look back on in the future, regardless of how it plays out.
With the below comparisons, you can see they generally have a few things in common with Bitcoin from 2015:
1) Yearly horizontal support held. If broken, the coins have risen back above the support again (take XRP and XLM for instance).
2) 2nd breach of 200d MA during the same yearly bottoming period. Some alts are already doing this, like NEO and VET, while others are making attempts (like XLM).
3) 2nd or 3rd test of bottom. NANO has actually made a successful 3rd test, and looks the most similar to 2015 Bitcoin. I made a separate post about this recently. XRP has also done a 3rd test, but looks a bit more worrisome.
What we clearly need to see is prices rise above their respective 200d MAs across the board, causing their 100d MAs to begin curving up. This would be the second time their 200d MAs has been breached during this bear market, which would be a bullish signal, based on what happened to Bitcoin in 2015. With some coins (like VET) this is already starting to happen.
Part III: Chart Comparisons, With Important Levels Marked
Listed below are comparisons and potential targets, with supports/resistances.
First, here's VET:
XLM:
NEO:
ONT:
XRP:
ETH looks a bit different, but perhaps that's because it's matured enough to follow Bitcoin more during this cycle:
Remember, the bearish possibility always exists. I just wanted to update my targets and post another analysis about this, because it's continued to look like a very possible bullish scenario. I'm following several similarities between this bull market and the previous one, and I think we're arguably still in the EARLY stages, with this cycle taking at least twice as long to play out as the previous one. This means that if anyone is going to make money in this market, it will require much more patience. Because many people were over-invested, and because generally people have very little disposable income in the world (when compared with the wealthy), many crypto investors have likely sold because they can't afford the opportunity cost of holding through a long bear market. The people with money have all the time in the world, and they have no concern for the little fish. In fact, they're depending on the little fish to help support a bull run by incurring even MORE debt. It's messed up, but that's how the world works right now. Until things change, of course. This is actually why I don't really expect crypto to make a new all-time-high in terms of market valuation until a few years from now, at the earliest. I think the stock market may need to enter a recession first.
This is not financial advice. I'm not a professional (yet), and this is entirely for speculation and entertainment purposes. Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
Please feel free to skip to the chart comparison section if you don't want to read this lengthly post.
Part I: Analysis Overview
I talked about why I thought Bitcoin Dominance was about to top out this summer. You can see that by reviewing some of my posts, linked at bottom. A lot of it simply has to do with basic logic: Some people made a huge amount of profit on Bitcoin from the rise to $13.8K this year. . In particular, a lot of leveraged profit was likely made on the second top at $13K, after the first bounce from $10K. This was a manipulated second top (I actually saw it happening; fake buy walls were artificially pushing the price up). I suggested that even a small amount of this profit could be entering altcoin positions soon. Since then, we've seen alt/Bitcoin ratios rise on every Bitcoin drop, which implies that money is actually flowing into alts at these prices. Are buyers accumulating in preparation for a break of these bottoming ranges? Or are they trying to make as much Bitcoin as possible before the halving? I'm making an effort to figure it out.
Many altcoins are now back above major yearly support levels. Some are already 100-200% up. Due to the emotional/speculative nature of this market, I don't expect the majority of the money to flow in until AFTER these alts actually break their highs from June and exit these ranges. People really need convincing. Unfortunately, retail traders hardly ever enter the majority of their positions close to bottom. We see that with volume. This is why volume doesn't usually peak until we're close to a top. I don't plan on selling my alts for Bitcoin or fiat until I see some truly enormous volume (10K+ BTC daily volume for an individual pair on Binance, for example).
Anyway, I'm going to again display a few chart comparisons, showing what would happen if some of these promising altcoins tried to make it out of their current ranges, after "bottoming" for over a year. A mark-up from these ranges would likely be significant (for the alts that make it). For the weaker looking alts, particularly low-caps that have declined over 90% in BTC value since April––they may never make it out of their ranges, although they can experience pump & dumps here and there. For example, even if GVT moved up 10X from here, it would only be back to previous major support. In contrast, XLM only needs to go another 100% to be back to major broken support. And that's even with XLM being the worst performer in the top 10 this year.
Part II: Chart Comparisons Explained
In the rest of this analysis, I'm going to post a few charts comparing various alts to Bitcoin's bottom from 2015, and what could happen if they break their ranges. We don't know how high they can go, but I don't have much faith that the crypto market can see a new ATH in terms of valuation within the next couple of years. Instead, I think many alts that declined 90% or more can simply get back to 25-50% away from their ATH, as the overall market approaches the $500-700B range. I'll obviously revise my outlook as conditions change, but right now I'm projecting a large move up for the coins that are here to stay, followed by a drop and a couple years of consolidation as Bitcoin prepares to finally breach its all-time-high. During this period (if it happens), I hope to make some extra cash by trading around profits from the rise. If Bitcoin can break $20K on the next wave up, my outlook will change, but I don't really expect it to make it much past the June 2019 high. You can see why in my most recent "Market Cycle" video. I also must emphasize that this entire scenario can fail if the total crypto market cap breaks its long term trend at CURRENT levels, and particularly if it can't hold above $230 Billion. I've talked about the significance of that level in my videos as well.
Full disclosure: The coins I'm including in this post are ones that I own. That's not to say other strong cryptocurrencies can't do the same, but this account is also a record of my personal investments/trades, and it'll be fun to look back on in the future, regardless of how it plays out.
With the below comparisons, you can see they generally have a few things in common with Bitcoin from 2015:
1) Yearly horizontal support held. If broken, the coins have risen back above the support again (take XRP and XLM for instance).
2) 2nd breach of 200d MA during the same yearly bottoming period. Some alts are already doing this, like NEO and VET, while others are making attempts (like XLM).
3) 2nd or 3rd test of bottom. NANO has actually made a successful 3rd test, and looks the most similar to 2015 Bitcoin. I made a separate post about this recently. XRP has also done a 3rd test, but looks a bit more worrisome.
What we clearly need to see is prices rise above their respective 200d MAs across the board, causing their 100d MAs to begin curving up. This would be the second time their 200d MAs has been breached during this bear market, which would be a bullish signal, based on what happened to Bitcoin in 2015. With some coins (like VET) this is already starting to happen.
Part III: Chart Comparisons, With Important Levels Marked
Listed below are comparisons and potential targets, with supports/resistances.
First, here's VET:
Remember, the bearish possibility always exists. I just wanted to update my targets and post another analysis about this, because it's continued to look like a very possible bullish scenario. I'm following several similarities between this bull market and the previous one, and I think we're arguably still in the EARLY stages, with this cycle taking at least twice as long to play out as the previous one. This means that if anyone is going to make money in this market, it will require much more patience. Because many people were over-invested, and because generally people have very little disposable income in the world (when compared with the wealthy), many crypto investors have likely sold because they can't afford the opportunity cost of holding through a long bear market. The people with money have all the time in the world, and they have no concern for the little fish. In fact, they're depending on the little fish to help support a bull run by incurring even MORE debt. It's messed up, but that's how the world works right now. Until things change, of course. This is actually why I don't really expect crypto to make a new all-time-high in terms of market valuation until a few years from now, at the earliest. I think the stock market may need to enter a recession first.
This is not financial advice. I'm not a professional (yet), and this is entirely for speculation and entertainment purposes. Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
评论:
Also, if we look at TOTAL2, we're holding the 100d MA and the long term trendline (pink). What needs to happen is a breakout from the $75-80 Billion major resistance zone and another break of the 200d MA.
评论:
Total2 has also confirmed an expansion of the downtrend channel:
评论:
Due to the bearish channel, ETH can try to test some lower levels if we break down here. I wouldn't COMPLETELY rule out this possibility.
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Cross-post from my recent video: The weekly indicators (especially the Ultimate Oscillator) are telling us that we could be priming for a breakout. It's interesting that the last time the weekly UO hit bottom and started recovering was when Bitcoin was still under $4K. We can still be in the early stages of a bull market. It's just that we're right up against some pretty major hurdles right now, so caution is still needed.
