Just got back from my trip to Toronto, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao! Another item ticked from my bucket list. If you have not been to Toronto before, it’s a must-see destination. Truly amazing. Did you know that the scene where Leonardo DiCaprio got arrested in the movie “Catch me if you can” was filmed in Montreal? I always thought the scene was filmed in France.
Now, let’s get back to Bitcoin. After an extended period of consolidation, Bitcoin has finally broken down of the $5800 support. If you still remembered, my very first target from early this year was around the $4400 level. Since then, with the emergence of more patterns/data/candles/price actions/different indicators, I have updated you with my thoughts that Bitcoin is possible to visit $4980, $3800 and even $2950 in the upcoming future.
Although my ultimate target have always been below $5000, I have been day/swing trading Bitcoin in the past few months simply by buying at good support levels. The end results were that I made 3 consecutive successful trades (You can refer to my previous TAs below in which I have given you the exact buy-ins as well as the reasons for taking the trades).
I can see many experts were calling $5800 as the bottom and that the institutional players were accumulating - it’s simply not the case. First, Bitcoin is still in a bear market. There is absolutely no sign of reversal - there were no double bottom and no creation of a higher-high. Trying to buy the dip and hold without signs of reversal is simply gambling. (It’s a different story if you are day/swing trade or scalping) Further, in a bear market like this, the retracement from the all-time-high is often 78.6% or more, which is at around $4400 (I have done a TA about this back in April 2018). Plus, the weekly EMA200 has not even been tested yet, which is also at the $4400 level. In addition, if you look at the structure around Oct 2017, $5800 is just not a critical support level in my opinion. A critical support is usually a flipping level (which used to be resistance but then became support - $4980 & $2954 are both flipping levels), or a neckline of a double bottom…etc.
What’s going to happen now?
At the moment, many people are trying to buy the dip as they think after a huge breakdown there must be some kind of relieve (retracement). I admire these people as either they are brave or they really know what they are doing. To me, I just don’t think that Bitcoin is going to drop by only 10% after breakdown of a 9 months descending triangle.
In my opinion, I think the more likely scenario is Bitcoin is going to test the $4980 support and IF (a big IF) it holds temporarily, then Bitcoin may go up and retest the bottom of the descending triangle at around $5800. But if $4980 does not hold, look for the price action around $4337, $3676, $2954 and $2403.
How would I trade?
There are only a couple of scenarios that I would consider to “position trade” into BTC if:
1. A double bottom is created in the range of $3676 - $4337, or in the range of $2000 - $2954.
2. A V-shape reversal that pierced through the $4k support, touch the $3k support and then quickly reverse and break above $4k, weekly EMA200 as well as top of the falling wedge, and preferably retest weekly EMA200 as support.
In other words, I will more than likely not to be able to buy at the very bottom. However, the chance of me making profits from these trades have increased by at least 50%+.
If you have enjoyed this free content and would like me to continue posting my ideas for free, please don’t hesitate to give this analysis a big thumbs up!!
Taiwan Bear
Previous analysis:
Now, let’s get back to Bitcoin. After an extended period of consolidation, Bitcoin has finally broken down of the $5800 support. If you still remembered, my very first target from early this year was around the $4400 level. Since then, with the emergence of more patterns/data/candles/price actions/different indicators, I have updated you with my thoughts that Bitcoin is possible to visit $4980, $3800 and even $2950 in the upcoming future.
Although my ultimate target have always been below $5000, I have been day/swing trading Bitcoin in the past few months simply by buying at good support levels. The end results were that I made 3 consecutive successful trades (You can refer to my previous TAs below in which I have given you the exact buy-ins as well as the reasons for taking the trades).
I can see many experts were calling $5800 as the bottom and that the institutional players were accumulating - it’s simply not the case. First, Bitcoin is still in a bear market. There is absolutely no sign of reversal - there were no double bottom and no creation of a higher-high. Trying to buy the dip and hold without signs of reversal is simply gambling. (It’s a different story if you are day/swing trade or scalping) Further, in a bear market like this, the retracement from the all-time-high is often 78.6% or more, which is at around $4400 (I have done a TA about this back in April 2018). Plus, the weekly EMA200 has not even been tested yet, which is also at the $4400 level. In addition, if you look at the structure around Oct 2017, $5800 is just not a critical support level in my opinion. A critical support is usually a flipping level (which used to be resistance but then became support - $4980 & $2954 are both flipping levels), or a neckline of a double bottom…etc.
What’s going to happen now?
At the moment, many people are trying to buy the dip as they think after a huge breakdown there must be some kind of relieve (retracement). I admire these people as either they are brave or they really know what they are doing. To me, I just don’t think that Bitcoin is going to drop by only 10% after breakdown of a 9 months descending triangle.
In my opinion, I think the more likely scenario is Bitcoin is going to test the $4980 support and IF (a big IF) it holds temporarily, then Bitcoin may go up and retest the bottom of the descending triangle at around $5800. But if $4980 does not hold, look for the price action around $4337, $3676, $2954 and $2403.
How would I trade?
There are only a couple of scenarios that I would consider to “position trade” into BTC if:
1. A double bottom is created in the range of $3676 - $4337, or in the range of $2000 - $2954.
2. A V-shape reversal that pierced through the $4k support, touch the $3k support and then quickly reverse and break above $4k, weekly EMA200 as well as top of the falling wedge, and preferably retest weekly EMA200 as support.
In other words, I will more than likely not to be able to buy at the very bottom. However, the chance of me making profits from these trades have increased by at least 50%+.
If you have enjoyed this free content and would like me to continue posting my ideas for free, please don’t hesitate to give this analysis a big thumbs up!!
Taiwan Bear
Previous analysis:
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On Bitstamp, the $4980 has broken down however on Bitfinex BTC is still above the structural support at $4909. Be careful if you are thinking of shorting here.
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Just realised when I posted the chart, I accidentally moved the fib retracement. The correct 78.6% retracement should be $4400 as I have mentioned in the description.
BTC has hit $4400. Let's see whether it will hold for now.
BTC has hit $4400. Let's see whether it will hold for now.
评论:
Bitcoin has bounced off of the weekly EMA200 & structures beautifully. What more can you ask for? Give it a THUMBS UP if you have found this post useful.
Earlier today when price hit $4150 I gave a warning on my Twitter that I think the sudden sell off into the important support level is usually a bear trap. Since then Bitcoin has rise by 10%.
Right now, what I want to see is a break above the neckline to confirm the double bottom (temporarily - to be confirmed at a later stage).
Earlier today when price hit $4150 I gave a warning on my Twitter that I think the sudden sell off into the important support level is usually a bear trap. Since then Bitcoin has rise by 10%.
Right now, what I want to see is a break above the neckline to confirm the double bottom (temporarily - to be confirmed at a later stage).
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Neckline did not break to confirm temporarily bottom. Instead, $4150 support has been broken. However, keep in mind the price is still within the blue support zone. Plus, weekly RSI is at extremely low (Same as 2014 low).
Consequently, please be patient and see if a pattern can emerge and gives us the confirmation to trade.
Consequently, please be patient and see if a pattern can emerge and gives us the confirmation to trade.
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Seeing many traders are over analysing the market again thinking cryptos is some kind of "special market". They come up with all these conspiracy theories so when they don't understand what the market is doing, they blame the market is such a manipulated market.
Patience is crucial in trading. If you don't see any pattern that's part of your trading plan, then DON"T TRADE. Let the pattern to emerge. You don't need to force yourself to find a pattern everyday and place a trade everyday.
I have marked the resistance and support levels. If you are a swing trader, sell at resistance, buy at support. Set your stop loss and let the market to decide.
As I have mentioned 10 days ago when the price was at $5300, I believe Bitcoin will drop further and there should have some support between $3500 - $4130, and indeed Bitcoin is currently consolidating between these levels. I do not think $3500 is the bottom of this crash as it is not the significant support level. $2950 is the significant support level to consider to buy.
Patience is crucial in trading. If you don't see any pattern that's part of your trading plan, then DON"T TRADE. Let the pattern to emerge. You don't need to force yourself to find a pattern everyday and place a trade everyday.
I have marked the resistance and support levels. If you are a swing trader, sell at resistance, buy at support. Set your stop loss and let the market to decide.
As I have mentioned 10 days ago when the price was at $5300, I believe Bitcoin will drop further and there should have some support between $3500 - $4130, and indeed Bitcoin is currently consolidating between these levels. I do not think $3500 is the bottom of this crash as it is not the significant support level. $2950 is the significant support level to consider to buy.
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Twitted earlier today. Bought at $4110, already 5% up.
Will take 50% profits and set stop-loss of remaining positions to break-even if Bitcoin cannot break $4300 this time.
Target is around $4750.
Will take 50% profits and set stop-loss of remaining positions to break-even if Bitcoin cannot break $4300 this time.
Target is around $4750.
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Closing half positions as I am going to sleep. Possible buy zone is shown on the chart.
Good night :)
Good night :)
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If you have bought because of Gartley and bottom of uptrend channel, it's good to take some profits now.
交易手动结束:
Remaining positions has hit break-even.
My short term bias is still up. Technically the double bottom at $3500 is still in play. For now I will stay on the side and see if it will give me a 4hr engulfing candle to buy.
Also, there is the possibility of AB=CD formation in which the target is also inline with my $4730 - $4750 target.
Let's see how it plays out.
My short term bias is still up. Technically the double bottom at $3500 is still in play. For now I will stay on the side and see if it will give me a 4hr engulfing candle to buy.
Also, there is the possibility of AB=CD formation in which the target is also inline with my $4730 - $4750 target.
Let's see how it plays out.
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