A slightly revised version of my previous idea (linked below). It goes to 2.8k :-( :-/ :-| :-)
Basically the same as my last idea, except I thought I would throw the 2016 channel in there. Strangely, the lower trendline of the channel matched my "low mean" almost exactly. Hmm.
I zoomed in on the 2014 decline from top and it's interesting to look at how the price was bouncing off the death ray initially as resistance, and then as support,.. but ultimately followed it all the way down, until the market was satisfied.
Peter Brandt tweeted today that most of the time parabolic advances end with an 80% loss when the parabola is violated, so he puts the low at under 4k somewhere.
Basically the same as my last idea, except I thought I would throw the 2016 channel in there. Strangely, the lower trendline of the channel matched my "low mean" almost exactly. Hmm.
I zoomed in on the 2014 decline from top and it's interesting to look at how the price was bouncing off the death ray initially as resistance, and then as support,.. but ultimately followed it all the way down, until the market was satisfied.
Peter Brandt tweeted today that most of the time parabolic advances end with an 80% loss when the parabola is violated, so he puts the low at under 4k somewhere.
评论:
new idea :-
评论:
Press Play. Strange how the price came down exactly to ride the bottom of the 2016 channel. Maybe not strange at all!
I think the price will come down to test the 4.2k breakout point. If we can come down with enough velocity to induce panic and get a "real" capitulation (rather than just an aggressive selloff we had already) - and IF we can flip 4.2k from resistance to support then the market could be satisfied and 3.1k will have been our bottom.
If 4.2k does not hold then we look towards the 200MA on the 1w and try to confirm that as support, as it has done twice already. Think thats around 3.5k as I write,.. and rising.
Another option - head for 3.1k and go for a double bottom - with a stronger capitulation and stronger buying force this time.
Other options .. brief dip and moon from here, lambos, etc. Hmm... maybe. Less likely IMHO
Or 1k stuff. 1.3k.. 1.8k etc Not looking likely IMHO. Will have time to look at this if other levels fail.
I think the price will come down to test the 4.2k breakout point. If we can come down with enough velocity to induce panic and get a "real" capitulation (rather than just an aggressive selloff we had already) - and IF we can flip 4.2k from resistance to support then the market could be satisfied and 3.1k will have been our bottom.
If 4.2k does not hold then we look towards the 200MA on the 1w and try to confirm that as support, as it has done twice already. Think thats around 3.5k as I write,.. and rising.
Another option - head for 3.1k and go for a double bottom - with a stronger capitulation and stronger buying force this time.
Other options .. brief dip and moon from here, lambos, etc. Hmm... maybe. Less likely IMHO
Or 1k stuff. 1.3k.. 1.8k etc Not looking likely IMHO. Will have time to look at this if other levels fail.
