Nidalas
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BTC, tricky situation, BCH impact 3?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
BTC             is a tricky situation.

It is massively overbought on the monthly charts, yet, there is still room for more. One would be good advised to take some profits on trades if you haven't already, and keep your long time core investments.
As you can see on my old map, you need to always have several scenarii in mind, to adapt and adjust. I was bearish for btc             for one more drop after the 3k$ level, but it turned out to have bottomed. Situation felt too much of an opportunity to FUD some more to pick up some cheap coins, but I guess the market didn't want to risk chipping the bullishness of btc             in the eyes of investors. Still, i had a map with wave 5 target, as it was due anyway, either from 3k or (much) less. Helped me secure profits. I added slowly over time on break and staying above 4600, but cashed in the trade profits

What i see are 3 potential situations, with 2 of them being extreme :

** BTC             bleeds out slowly in a longterm (few months) bear market to consolidate the price, potentially to fuel altcoins, just as in the other yellow circle
** BTC             fast drop because of a BCH third impact (see consolidation of BCH), with money "borrowed" from btc             once more, to fuel a drop to the lower part of the channel or a scandal
** BTC             breaks the upper channel (as it did early 2017) and enters further more into bubble territory and parabolic uptrend, creating a new channel, probably raising awareness about Tether forging


Since the word on the street is a 3rd bch impact, and as we know, in crypto "once is insider's surprise, twice is for smart money, third is for suckers", i expect one of the others scenarii
I think the "third btc             fork, 2x" is a good example of that

I personally will not swing it. This madness is too much high risk vs reward, even as a swinger. I consider it is a good time to start investing in high potential altcoins with stable X / USD charts that can withstand cryptowinters
评论:

Also, take a look at google trends for "bitcoin", never been that high. Last spikes like these were not long before the cycle crashes. However, if we go truly parabolic bubble-like, there is room for more insanity grow. Watch out for upper channel breakup.

If it does, wait for a pullback for the swingers and traders.
Investors-Holders, it will be then time to start taking some profits to reinject elsewhere (gold, stocks, high value altcoins) progressively. Parabolic descent is never fun
评论: Last warning for traders and swingers to jump ship before the potential correction (probably 40% to 5000, more or less a couple of dollars). Don't play with fire, and get back if we break upward. Lock some profits at least

Most expect a crash afterward, but consolidation and swings between 5 and 8k for a year is more probable, for Tethers and mafia cleanout, before the real bubble. Could also happen in an unhealthy way now if we break up resistance. Or get a deep sharp fast wave4 to 4k or lower before a big bounce.
评论: IF the correction arrives, I expect it to be around 9000$ (witch is also a round number when converted in yuan and yen), and with a cumulative value of BTC+BCH+BTG between 11 and 14k.

Estimated date : between 6th and 11th december.

Note :this is not a "sell your btc before inpendant doom" post, but rather a "now is a good time to start thinking about diversifying in high potential altcoins and projects"
评论: We just touched 11k target of btc+bch+btg, with no sign of bears yet. 14k ?

We are in wave 5, and their particularities is being fanatic AND have almost no retracements. Warning though

评论: This 11000 --> 9000 would be the "nervous phase", AKA wave 4 out of 5, of wave 5, of giant wave 3

What this means is that we might see beginings of FUD and usual china bans, some tether (legitimate) FUD, big money shorting BTC with futures etc... Which translates to a potential double top or new high around 12k (would be around my 14k BTC+BCH+BTG target. Aim lower because of BTD)

And then new lows. Could also be a crash top with no wave 5 (like the 5k top)
Hard to say where, but to be honest, a bear market down to 1300 in the next years before a final run up is not out of the question. For me, as I said many times, it is time for traders to run with profit, and investors to diversify into high potential altcoins that can survive and endure potential cryptowinters. Like ETH, but less overpriced and hyped.


Few tips for not crying soon :


Don't panic sell, donc panic buy, and go with your initial plan, and only with what you can afford to lose 100%
AND FOR GOD'S SAKE, LEAVE YOUR MONEY AND COINS OFF EXCHANGES

Either fiat in your bank account, or coins in your own adresses, depending on your vision of the industry, and use your profits to diversify (good potential stocks, metals, rising companies, real estate in upcoming cities. The music WILL stop sometime, manage your risks
交易结束:到达目标: I sold most of my btc for either fiat or alts

Buy order at 6k region for now
评论:
评论: Entry was not entirely optimal, exchanges being down most of the time due to traffic to adjust entry price, but congratz, +21% profit in a day
评论: "I sold most of my btc for either fiat or alts "

alts surged and I bought back more than half of my initial btc stack with less than 33% of my alts stack thanks to XRP, ETH and ETC mostly, and a big bag of bonus fiat for the new year dip. Everything according to plan for now

Stay frosty
交易结束:到达目标: "big bag of bonus fiat for the new year dip. Everything according to plan for now "

It all happened, as you can see, while I even got insulting comments for selling btc at 17k for alts and 19k for fiat


I get numerous messages asking me what to do now, "sell or buy ?"
My answer is always the same : "I am not answering that, because if I do, I am breaking the law". I'm here to share my own positions and teach people how to interpret price action, movements, sentiment, indicators and all the tools to get an hedge in this ruthless game.

"So what would you do ?"
Neither of those. I would consider the situation too late for both, as any of those actions will expose you to major risks

I sold everything above 17k as I published, and bought back fully my positions at 9200$, and waiting to see what will happen next, as we are in a complex correction phase.


I am closing this idea, as this market cycle is over.

Follow me for more information about future movements, or materials about how to trade and money management. Feel free to ask any questions and contact me on tradingview or my telegram
Exactly! We will have to watch the news very closely. At the moment there are several market events acting in both directions.

Since it is very hard to predict BTC's movement I like to take a look at historical behaviour, so let's take a look at the chart 12 months ago. The market situation was different but I think we're gonna find some simularities.



So OK, Bitcoin made its major move around Dec 20th. These holidays were acting like a long weekend. Many small investors decided to join the market, money gained from Christmas pushed this bahaviour. We can see a steep correction on Jan 5th, which is basically the day business starts again.

This year we have another major actor in the game: Institutional Investors. These will try to get in before such a spike, but the won't care about +/- 300 USD in pricing like small investors do.

You said completely right that the whole market it overbought on longer timeframes. That's not a good entry for big players. When you take a look on Funds having BTC in their portfolios you can see that the percentage of BTC is quite small / could be much higher (for example http://thetoken.io). Looks like they're waiting for something.

It's also important to find the real longterm trend and differ it from any short term trendline trying to point to a certain event like 2x fork or so.


Just some thinkings...
have an amazong weekend
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Nidalas sebastian.soik
@sebastian.soik, Thank you for your detailed input! These are wise words, and looking at the overall trend and situation is of utmost importance.

It is definitely not the time to bet the house on BTC right now.

Looking at the overall timeframe, we can see we are probably on the end of a wave 5 of wave 3 of a first grand cycle. This means one huge drop OR sharp decent drop+consolidation is becoming the most probable outcome, right now. According to Elliott, the drop could be down to 5k and this would still mean btc is uber bullish, 4200$ and it is still very normal and bullish. This gives some perspective

Still, it has been +260% since the last institutional investors came in, which means they are less and less likely to enter now without exposing themselves. And we know they are risk takers, but only when it's not their own money in line

Anyhoo, we are seeing the same kind of "nervous phase" meaning the correction is probable soon (often couple of days or weeks after a weaker bullrun) as we both noted. Other possibility is higher on the curve, going even more parabolic if price holds through this end of year
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