When everybody sees the same thing, is that good or bad?

Generally I'm a contrarian and my philosophy is, "the market likes to disappoint". So who would be more disappointed? The people who want a lower entry point to buy in, or the people who see a bull flag and expect a break out? It's a tough question. From a TA perspective, it's hard to find a more perfect long setup. But when something is too perfect, it can easily let you down. However I think there is a broad sentiment that thinks, "there's no way we can break the recent highs, because that means we test the all time highs... it's a fakeout." Well maybe it isn't. Either way, we're seeing a volatility squeeze, which means a big move is coming very, very soon.

A fakeout to the downside followed by a rally to new highs disappoints the most people, but I'm tentatively betting BTC moves up soon.

Good luck!

评论:

BTC continuing to ride that blue channel trendline that *everybody* is looking at... i get the sense that the longer it does, the more explosive the initial move will be. But i have zero conviction as to whether we see a straight breakout, or a breakdown first and then a breakout after..