10/17 Give us a healthy pull back.

10月18日

Overview:
The SPY continues its upward trajectory, hitting new all-time highs. The bullish momentum is supported by more companies exceeding earnings expectations this week. Despite rising unemployment and persistent inflation, corporations are posting record profits. It’s a reminder that the stock market and the economy don’t always move in sync.

The QQQ , representing big tech, is hovering near its all-time high but struggling to break through. The Federal Reserve reported fewer initial jobless claims at 241k, a decrease from last week, but still higher than the average over the last three years. The CME Watch Tool now indicates a 9.3% chance of no rate cut in the next meeting on November 7th, influenced by these labor market figures.

Meanwhile, a surge in BTC ETF purchases has been observed throughout the week. Yesterday, BlackRock acquired $309 million worth, nearly tripling its average of $117.4 million. This marks their fourth consecutive day of buying. Even Grayscale joined the action. Altogether, $1.854 billion flowed into BTC ETFs this week. This could either mark the peak of the sixth bullish wave or set up a breakout from the year-long bullish flag pattern. BTC saw an 8% rise this week, making it one of the top five best-performing weeks of the year, including February's pump following BTC ETF approval. However, the volume remains lower than expected. For a full trend confirmation, we need institutional whales to join in. If we are indeed breaking out of the bullish flag, the volume should match levels seen at the beginning of the bull run in October and November 2023, when weekly volumes were 80-100% higher than this week.

BTC Technical Analysis:
W: On the weekly chart, BTCUSDT candle wick has reached July's open and close but hasn't tested its highs around 70k. A close above 68.2k this week would be a bullish signal. We still have Friday, but the weekend isn’t likely to bring much action.

D: BTC has been at the upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days without any correction or pullback. The candles are reminiscent of the week of September 3rd, which saw an 8.5% pump, followed by a fake breakout and an additional 4.54% rise before a sharp decline wiped out all gains within ten days. A healthy pullback could target the $64-68k range—but of course, the bullish sentiment says, "No pullbacks on the way to the moon!"

4h: The current pump started at the key 2024 level of 62.7k, rising in three waves. The third push had lower volume, signaling a price-volume divergence. RSI has exceeded 70 twice and is now trending down, showing divergence with the price. On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) also indicate divergence. Without a clear shooting star candle with high volume, nothing is confirmed yet. We might see some sideways action over the weekend before a possible breakout on Sunday evening.

1h: Bearish.

Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR are showing weakness. None have reached their July peaks like BTC, and they have all pulled back after this week’s pump. Quick question: Does MKR have a bottom?

Bull Case: If we continue breaking out of the bull flag, the pump could extend into next week, with potential gains of another 6-8%. If Trump wins and crypto rallies, rates could be cut in November and December, bringing them down to 4.25-4.50%.

Bear Case: We could continue oscillating within the $58-70k range, and we are currently at the upper end.

Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 58, still Neutral, but it touched the Greed level of 60 yesterday.