Bitcoin's Weekend Tricks
已更新
Going to continue on the previous analysis. The green zone around 7240 worked like a charm this time, so it seems some things still work :). The red curved shape worked perfectly as well, almost bit surprised they made it this easy.
Anyway, trying to figure out what is going on at the moment. We are at a very similar spot as we were 2 weeks ago. Where that pretty obvious wedge broke its support and price dropped from 6700 to 6100. But when you look closely, you can see that Bitcoin dropped Friday at 22.30 (CET), which is an half hour AFTER the US stock market closes. This time again it dropped (a few hours later) AFTER the US stock market closed. For the ones who are not aware, stock markets were closed Friday because of Eastern, so the weekend is longer.
So it looks like the whales have done an identical play here, dropping right after the stock markets close for the weekend. In other words, we need to take into account that they might move up it again. I have tried to zoom into both weekends, but don't have the time to really do it. There are a few small differences, but could be complete noise.
What i can suggest is the following, look at a few alts during these 2 moments. From my experience, ETH and Bitcoin Cash show the biggest clues in this market, LTC is maybe also one of those actually.
Here below we can see a zoom in, a break down of the both drops. Now this does suggest a clear difference between the 2. First one was a clear long squeeze and it was a bigger % drop . However the size difference of the drop is too small to see it as a real difference. What i do find interesting, the first drop was a long squeeze (so more forced, stop hunts), a straight drop to the first target. Yesterday it happened in 2 waves, with the second one even being bigger than the first. So that could suggest 2 things:
1), Two weeks ago, (retail) bulls were less convinced of a rally, so many used tight stops and price simply dropped to the level where the stop hunt fuel ended. That would suggest that this time, since it was not a squeeze, that (retail) bulls were more confident of a rally and using a wider stop.
2) Even though the initial drop was small (200 points), seems bears/sellers were already planning to sell even more. In other words, this drop seems to be less forced than the long squeeze from 2 weeks ago.
Again, these are assumption, volumes differences during both drops are too similar and nothing very big that stands out, so could all just be noise.
What happened last time, the second drop was smaller than the first drop . So for now, we should see a similar or even bigger drop to be sure the trend has changed. It is allowed to see it move up a bit first, to lets say 7000/7050 before that bigger drop happens.
Here below, you can't really call them an H&S , but they have the characteristics of one, because of the neckline. 2 weeks ago, we can see it never came close to the neckline (green zone). So if we would see 6600ish get touched, it would be a difference compared to 2 weeks ago.
Comparing past month to the 10K high, my guess is, we migh are in that red zone now. So this is not a fractal , but it could be it's showing the steps of the whales who are distributing. If we see a move up to 7150, i have no idea at all.
This might be something, what the bears want to see. Showing the same thing as i described above, seeing a touch of the 6600ish green zone.
Good luck, but be careful, it's weekend!
Previous analysis
Anyway, trying to figure out what is going on at the moment. We are at a very similar spot as we were 2 weeks ago. Where that pretty obvious wedge broke its support and price dropped from 6700 to 6100. But when you look closely, you can see that Bitcoin dropped Friday at 22.30 (CET), which is an half hour AFTER the US stock market closes. This time again it dropped (a few hours later) AFTER the US stock market closed. For the ones who are not aware, stock markets were closed Friday because of Eastern, so the weekend is longer.
So it looks like the whales have done an identical play here, dropping right after the stock markets close for the weekend. In other words, we need to take into account that they might move up it again. I have tried to zoom into both weekends, but don't have the time to really do it. There are a few small differences, but could be complete noise.
What i can suggest is the following, look at a few alts during these 2 moments. From my experience, ETH and Bitcoin Cash show the biggest clues in this market, LTC is maybe also one of those actually.
Here below we can see a zoom in, a break down of the both drops. Now this does suggest a clear difference between the 2. First one was a clear long squeeze and it was a bigger % drop . However the size difference of the drop is too small to see it as a real difference. What i do find interesting, the first drop was a long squeeze (so more forced, stop hunts), a straight drop to the first target. Yesterday it happened in 2 waves, with the second one even being bigger than the first. So that could suggest 2 things:
1), Two weeks ago, (retail) bulls were less convinced of a rally, so many used tight stops and price simply dropped to the level where the stop hunt fuel ended. That would suggest that this time, since it was not a squeeze, that (retail) bulls were more confident of a rally and using a wider stop.
2) Even though the initial drop was small (200 points), seems bears/sellers were already planning to sell even more. In other words, this drop seems to be less forced than the long squeeze from 2 weeks ago.
Again, these are assumption, volumes differences during both drops are too similar and nothing very big that stands out, so could all just be noise.
What happened last time, the second drop was smaller than the first drop . So for now, we should see a similar or even bigger drop to be sure the trend has changed. It is allowed to see it move up a bit first, to lets say 7000/7050 before that bigger drop happens.
Here below, you can't really call them an H&S , but they have the characteristics of one, because of the neckline. 2 weeks ago, we can see it never came close to the neckline (green zone). So if we would see 6600ish get touched, it would be a difference compared to 2 weeks ago.
Comparing past month to the 10K high, my guess is, we migh are in that red zone now. So this is not a fractal , but it could be it's showing the steps of the whales who are distributing. If we see a move up to 7150, i have no idea at all.
This might be something, what the bears want to see. Showing the same thing as i described above, seeing a touch of the 6600ish green zone.
Good luck, but be careful, it's weekend!
Previous analysis
注释
Still nothing real has happened so far, so moving a bit similar as 2 weeks ago. Open Intrest has increased quite a bit past days, but i don't trust it though. I have mentioned the OI a few times, and shortly after things were changing. So i think this increase in OI is fake (meaning these whales are shorting one account and longing the other to play break even solely to increase the OI number). For the ones who think that's bullshit, well i could be wrong on this one, but i have proven it twice the past months. Anyway, still a lot can happen on the short term, i still favor a bearish scenario for the coming week, but no use fighting it. What i can say, something we tend to see during a bearish trend, that if we would see something like the blue line. So a a break above this 6900/950 zone and squeeze to 7100 but seeing clear rejection there. If we would then see a fast drop below the 6800, i think the bear trend will be confirmed. Until then, it can still go both ways.
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