Hypothetical idea: "when" & "how high" will next BTC peak be?

2023年2月2日

Very, very simple projection using previous BTC "Halvening" dates measured to peak of market over the last several years, and then averaging the three periods (again, the length of time from Halvening to next peak) to project the next peak.

Used TradingView curve tool to capture the peaks and troughs of the market over time. Obviously using Bitstamp as it has the most complete market data.

Obviously just a projection - but using these inputs and the curve tool to project, it looks like the end of the next BTC cycle should be mid to late 2025 (as early as June or July, as late as August or September), and a peak of I would say between 75K-110K.

I think the time right now is to be very careful. The market is starting to get very frothy due to the anticipation of the US Federal Reserve easing, but honestly I think the market is getting way ahead of itself. Short to mid-term, I see Bitcoin rallying into the end of 2023, possibly as high as upper 40K, but then correcting back to under 20K.

Then we should start rallying into the next Halvening in 2024, and then finally start to moon again. But this will take some time.