Well we blew right through the 8000 level and down through 7800. Obviously wave 2 didn't end at the 61.8% retrace, but only showed a sizeable bounce. Now we are looking at the 78.6% retrace level at 7400. We also have major support at 7250, so the red box at that level provides another great opportunity for a bounce and an end to wave 2. My subwaves were invalidated once it got below 8000, and we will have to see where this breakdown ends to get a fresh count.
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And there was the hit on the top of that box where BTC got down to 7402 before going back up over 7500. 5 minute chart below and we will see if we get a big bounce here and start back up. But my gut tells me that the bulls will hang out between 7400 and 7800 for a while before any major responsive bull rally may begin.
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So the bulls didn't take that bounce very far as I expected and now BTC has dropped and hit the bottom of the box at 7250 level. Now we see another bounce. it doesn't appear like there are many bulls out there ready to take this further upward. I think in the next few days we will bounce here between 7250 and 7600 and then go down to the next support line shown in the 15 minute chart below.
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Trending up all day, but volumes are decreasing. About to hit my black curved line and head back down to the next support level of 6800-6900. Mark me. ;P
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Well so far I'm not too far off. Overnight it looks like there was some fun action, but we end up in the same place we were yesterday The only difference is that it looks like BTC has bounced a couple times off the top of the downtrend channel (in pink). The lack of serious conviction on any bounce over the last 48 hours tells me that we very probably will eventually go down through the red box of support and hit the support at the 6800 level.