做空

#BTCUSD: Top, or at least the biggest correction since 2020

已更新

I think we have substantial risk that we are about to face the largest correction has seen since the bottom in March 2020. Biden's proposal to hike taxes has roiled markets globally, and specially risk on assets naturally. Commodities are already rallying big and we know inflation is around the corner. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw the top for good, but I'm open to the possibility that this is a healthy correction to delever the market. Estimated leverage ratios from all exchanges are very high as per Crypto Quant data, which opens the possibility for a cascading liquidation run towards substantially lower prices if long term buyers don't support the market here. No one likes a market that is 'too long'. We are hedged from higher levels today.

Sellers had taken a pause since the liquidation drop a few days ago, but buying pressure failed to manifest itself, and instead we observed an increase in leverage once again from retail buyers confident to buy the dip (was a red flag according to Santiment data). We haven't had corrections larger than 30% so far, not by much, unlike previous bullish trends in crypto, and we have a huge support level at 42381, the price where we heard about buying for the first time. The market reacted to it and I could determine this Key Level using Key Hidden Levels, a proprietary trading methodology and toolset developed by my mentor, timwest .

For the time being I'm in cash in my crypto account, waiting for the dust to settle, I certainly was a bit shaken by the recent action as we topped after hitting the 1st long term target zone in my big picture chart, at 57k, rather than trend for the duration of the forecasted rally until May 2022. This is unlike the previous bullish cycle. The only similarity is we have a crazy euphoria in altcoins, even in the face of falling prices vs the dollar, and crazy high funding rates at exchanges and enormous leverage.
It was one of my possible scenarios, since we had the 'laser eyes' trend catching on, I felt it was a sign of the times and a sentiment red flag but shrugged it off since weekly charts had remained strong, although I failed to realize the underlying market structure was not healthy with so much leverage in the system.
The scenario I outlined was that we top at the first target, falling short of that 100k milestone...and bottom when people give up on the laser eyes meme.
We should get signs of institutional buyers stopping the fall to get some reassurance, for now they are nowhere to be seen.

Let's hope the bottom is confirmed very soon, and this isn't the end of the bullish trend but it is certainly possible.

Best of luck!

Ivan Labrie.

交易手动结束

I bot back for now, short term looks bullish, open to selling and shorting again if needed.