Sennacat

History repeating?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
265 3 8
A quick and simple observation of the possibility of history repeating from the early February downward movement.
On the 4hr we can see the current price range bouncing between 8900 and testing 9500 as we did 3rd & 4th February as marked by the blue circles. We can also see by the MacD and stochastic the levels in Feb and current are at the exact the same levels as indicated by the green arrows and pink lines.
If the price range continues to bounce between 8900 and 9500 till late Sunday/Early Monday morning this could see the same big sell off all the way down to the 6000 - 5800 range once again, and maybe lower this time as it did not reach the target last time.
A solid break above 9500 and daily close above would invalidate this idea.
Personally i am out until there is a clear direction formed, this is way too risky to take position until a confirmed trend is established.
The other interesting indicator to watch is the 200MA on the daily, this morning we have tested it again but bounced up, if there is a daily close below, this could provoke the sell off.

Good luck!
Well done. Spot on.
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Hey man, i was looking at this earlier. Hadn't looked at the detailed similarities in oscillators tho. Good sight.
I've been tempted to short this but like you said, it's quite risky to do so before a definite trend has been confirmed,

Big similarities in the shape of the price action, the pattern of the bounce, and being pushed up by an apparent tweezer bottom. We might horizontal for another day or two before confirming, stoch could touch 80 like it did in February before tipping over for even more similarities. Ofcourse, similarity of circumstance says very little about similarity of outcome, price action wise.

But it is definitly looking like this rally is running out of breath at a precipice.
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Sennacat robertjulius
@robertjulius,
Hey man! yep i agree, i am tempted to short also but this really could go either way with a quick break in either direction. It's way too risky for now. As you say If stoch comes up and turns at 80% we may have the destination! Good luck!
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