Bitcoin Extra Update, possible Fractal?
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The 3570 is still a resistance level and once again we are moving inside of a triangle again. Typical low volume movement like we have seen for months in the 6K zone. Which is a complete waste of time for normal TA and also moments where most traders loose money. Unless you are able to do the opposite of what you normally do. Guessing where the next stop hunt will be and getting in there. Instead of getting in when thinking a breakout has happened (on the up or downside). Eventually the sideways show will end, could be 1 day, but could also be 2 weeks. But as long as the volume stays like this, the movement will also be like this, with bearish movement having slightly the upper hand. Because low volume is usually a bearish sign, shows there is low interest at the current price.
On the left we can see that ABC i mentioned, which is still possible. On the left we can see a (probably) good guide line. I am personally not trading this though. First i want to see some real volume increase. My bigger view is still the same since nothing really changed yet, you can read about it in my previous analysis. In short, we could still be moving inside of a big bullish wedge, that is, if we stay above the 3300/3400. Which would mean the big ABC i talked about from the 3200 low, might still be in play. If we see a sharp decline that breaks 3300/3200, things could get very ugly.
A theory i have had for half year maybe now, is about Bitmex and it's order book. Bitmex has an unique fee system, because you get paid if you have a Maker (limit) order. I always wondered why we see a lot of those big orders during sideways action (low volume) and during normal price action (high volume) we don't see them that much. Maybe you did not notice it, but since we broke the 6K in Nov, we did not see those big buy and sell orders in the book that much. During the big crash, i remember seeing not even 1 buy/sell order above 500k. My screen shows 40 orders on both sides.
I think, during those volatile movements, these people (prob Market Makers) are not active because they can't earn easy money then. We had many moments the past 6 months, were the price sometimes moved inside 20/30 points for many hours, sometimes even a day long. I think these moments they just keep the price inside a tight range, get the maker fee and a few extra points. I don't know what and how they do things, but i am sure that there is at least something going on. It's not real manipulation, they just keep the price in a range when the volume is as good as dead. I do however think, these people might responsible for the smaller Bart moves during the sideways action. They probably do those if they have to get out of a certain bigger position.
Just sharing some thoughts here, could be wrong about it, but at least some factors are not a coincidence. Below we can see a chart of the past 2 months. Green zone is the when volume died (around Christmas). You can see how different the shape of the movements are between the green and yellow zones, with the highlighted orange area's, being the extremes of both sides. If i can find the time, i will try to research this to see if i can find patterns
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
On the left we can see that ABC i mentioned, which is still possible. On the left we can see a (probably) good guide line. I am personally not trading this though. First i want to see some real volume increase. My bigger view is still the same since nothing really changed yet, you can read about it in my previous analysis. In short, we could still be moving inside of a big bullish wedge, that is, if we stay above the 3300/3400. Which would mean the big ABC i talked about from the 3200 low, might still be in play. If we see a sharp decline that breaks 3300/3200, things could get very ugly.
A theory i have had for half year maybe now, is about Bitmex and it's order book. Bitmex has an unique fee system, because you get paid if you have a Maker (limit) order. I always wondered why we see a lot of those big orders during sideways action (low volume) and during normal price action (high volume) we don't see them that much. Maybe you did not notice it, but since we broke the 6K in Nov, we did not see those big buy and sell orders in the book that much. During the big crash, i remember seeing not even 1 buy/sell order above 500k. My screen shows 40 orders on both sides.
I think, during those volatile movements, these people (prob Market Makers) are not active because they can't earn easy money then. We had many moments the past 6 months, were the price sometimes moved inside 20/30 points for many hours, sometimes even a day long. I think these moments they just keep the price inside a tight range, get the maker fee and a few extra points. I don't know what and how they do things, but i am sure that there is at least something going on. It's not real manipulation, they just keep the price in a range when the volume is as good as dead. I do however think, these people might responsible for the smaller Bart moves during the sideways action. They probably do those if they have to get out of a certain bigger position.
Just sharing some thoughts here, could be wrong about it, but at least some factors are not a coincidence. Below we can see a chart of the past 2 months. Green zone is the when volume died (around Christmas). You can see how different the shape of the movements are between the green and yellow zones, with the highlighted orange area's, being the extremes of both sides. If i can find the time, i will try to research this to see if i can find patterns
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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