BITCOIN [BTC/USD] - Is On The Edge!!

已更新

Hey!
Finally, yesterday we got a volume, after two weeks almost sideways (fiat exchanges sideways, Thether' exchanges slightly downwards) movement.

Currently, the price is on the very important area, between the two counter-trendlines both of them are pulled from August 14. but they have a different count of touches:
- Orange has two touches and yesterday was the third touch, this is pulled from the wicks
- Gray has three touches and yesterday was the fourth and the key points are pulled from August 14 wick and 19. Sept. wick

So, a pretty hard to say, do it makes another drop to the $6,125 or do it makes a pullback to the $6,460.
Let's try to break it down by the confirmation areas.

Bearish scenario:
Currently, we don't have a 4h candle close below the orange trendline which is a good sign but if we get a candle close below the orange counter-trendline then it would be a first bearish sign that the drop may happen (light red triangle is the first danger zone, if You see a candle close inside of it).
The second danger zone is the red area below the major down-trendline. If we get a close below the black trendline then we might go to the 'super-strong area' at $6,125. Between the trendline and the $6,125 is also lately worked support level at $6,250 but I think if we see a drop then it doesn't hold us because the down pressure is pretty big and the gap between the major down-trendline and the $6,250 is too tiny to find a stop there but all depends on how strong the pressure is but remember, if it triggers then it could be another panic selling.

A tiny bearish confirmation area is also the green line between the counter trendlines. Historically it has been worked multiple times as a support and as a resistance. If the current 4h candle closes below the green line then we have also a bearish candlestick pattern called "Evening Star" star and actually, this could be the first statement downwards.

Short-term bullish scenario:
Firstly we have to find a support from the green line, it can't close below the line the reasons are explained above, we need a rejection upwards from it and it will guide us again above the gray counter trendline, there is just a little bit safer area to stay!
Short-term target would be the old well-known support level which now becomes a resistance.
I start to make updates about the current price action but we have some inverted H&S patterns on the lower time frames, don't think they are so significant but let's see.

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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!

注释

4h candle close and a perfect rejection from the green line! So, the first bearish sign has failed! Now we need the power to push it through the gray trendline and above of it. It's nice to see that the mentioned green line has held us at the moment, sweet!

注释

Here is the possible inverted Head and Shoulders pattern but remember, we have to get a close above the neckline to confirm that pattern! If we get a close above the neckline (around the green box) then it is valid, then we are back above the two counter-trendlines and it has 'free land' to go to the first target area at $6,460!

注释

Still between the two trendlines and it didn't find that power to go above the gray trendline.
Currently, in the shorter time frame (5min) You can see that the price has made higher high and higher low but if the price falls below the black support line, which is also the previous higher low (HL), then it would be a small bearish sign that the tiny bull movement could be over. Currently approaching it but let's see...

注释

Be careful, a new short-term lower low!!
Now there is only orange trendline which should act as a support, if not then the drop could be possible!

注释

The volume is higher than previously today and currently, the mentioned orange trendline works correctly as a support, we need definitely a move upwards to go away from the “edge area” but if we go back below it then we go lower, to the $6300 area! So, watch it carefully!

注释

To the major down-trendline!

注释

Alert!! The counter trendlines are down. So, the first bigger bearish sign!

注释

Like I mentioned yesterday: "To the major down-trendline"...currently, it has found support from the black line and the price got rejected pretty nicely and it formed a bull-ISH candle but still we are below both counter-trendlines and we are on the critical area.
If we look at altcoins then they don't give any significant signs, some of them are on the plus side, some of them are on the minus side.
If we want to see today a bullish Bitcoin then the major resistances are those orange and gray trendlines, above those Bitcoin is on the safer area but currently, anything can happen so, be careful!

注释

Here could be the starting point to the next move/attempt to break upwards through the counter-trendlines and back into the safe area, at least it's a sign!
The high volume inside the last 15 min candle!