After seeing a couple people talking about a potential Santa Rally, I decided to dive into the data and see if the Santa Rally is actually a thing for crypto.
Firstly, some general information. The "Santa Rally" originates from the stock markets, where it's described as a calendar effect where the markets show (generally) positive returns during the 5 trading days after Christmas and the first two trading days of the new year (wikipedia).
Since Bitcoin markets are always open, I decided to look at the period from 27-12 (open) until 4-1 (close). The data may vary slightly depending which day you choose as your last day of the Santa Rally.
As seen in the table, the average return of BTC during the period has been 7.34% over the last 12 years, with 75% being a green period. In addition, 42% of the times the returns have been greater than 10%!
Will it happen again? We simply don't know. All we can see is that BTC has historically performed quite good during this periods, so definitely going to be interesting to see what the market will give us over the next two weeks or so.
Firstly, some general information. The "Santa Rally" originates from the stock markets, where it's described as a calendar effect where the markets show (generally) positive returns during the 5 trading days after Christmas and the first two trading days of the new year (wikipedia).
Since Bitcoin markets are always open, I decided to look at the period from 27-12 (open) until 4-1 (close). The data may vary slightly depending which day you choose as your last day of the Santa Rally.
As seen in the table, the average return of BTC during the period has been 7.34% over the last 12 years, with 75% being a green period. In addition, 42% of the times the returns have been greater than 10%!
Will it happen again? We simply don't know. All we can see is that BTC has historically performed quite good during this periods, so definitely going to be interesting to see what the market will give us over the next two weeks or so.
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