Bitcoin tight range below 113.24–114k, FOMC in focus

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Market Overview
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BTC is ranging tightly: repeated rejections below 113,24–114,0k while 111,956 support still holds. Momentum is split with 1D/12H constructive and 4H–6H still leaning lower.

• Momentum: range ⚖️ — bounces above 111,956 but a firm 113,24–114,0k cap stalls extensions.
  
• Key levels:
  • Resistances (D/12H/4H): 113.24–114.0k · 114.8k (extension) · 121–124k (HTF).
  • Supports (D/12H/4H): 112.2/111,956 · 110,086 · 107,026.
  
• Volumes: broadly normal to moderate; very high spikes on LTF during rejections around 113.2–113.3k.
  
• Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H held (constructive), 4H–6H down (pressure at the cap), 1H/LTF counter‑trend pops.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL SELL 🟠 — slight sell bias that aligns with the ceiling at 113.24–114.0k.
  

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Trading Playbook
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Strategic stance: as long as 113.24–114.0k caps price, favor defensive range-trading; switch to pro‑breakout only on confirmed acceptance.

• Global bias: overall = NEUTRAL SELL (mild) while below 113.24–114.0k; invalidated on 12H close above 113,241 with volume.
  
• Opportunities:
  • Defensive buy at 112.2–111,956/110,086 → aim 113.2–114.0k; stop < 110,086.
  • Rejection short at 113.24–114.0k → aim 112.2 then 111,956; stop > 114.3k.
  • Bullish breakout on 4H/12H close > 113,241 + successful retest → aim 114.8k then 121–124k; stop below 113.1 (failed retest).
  
• Risk zones / invalidations:
  • Break below 110,086 ⚠️ re‑opens 107,026 and invalidates range longs.
  • “Fake breaks” above 113,241 without volume expansion → trap risk.
  
• Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
  • FOMC in focus (high odds of a rate cut) → potential volatility around pivots.
  • Firm USD → headwind for risk assets, capping BTC near resistance.
  • Asian risk tone constructive (Nikkei record) + adoption (BBVA custody, KuCoin Pay) → medium‑term structural support.
  
• Action plan:
  • Defensive Long: Entry 112.2–111,956 | Stop < 110,086 | TP1 113.2 | TP2 114.0k | TP3 114.8k | R/R ~1.5–2.0R.
  • Rejection Short: Entry 113.24–114.0k | Stop > 114.3k | TP1 112.2 | TP2 111,956 | TP3 110,086 | R/R ~1.3–1.8R.
  • Breakout Long: Entry on 4H/12H close > 113,241 + retest | Stop < 113.1 | TP1 114.8k | TP2 116.0k | TP3 121–124k | R/R ~1.8–3.0R.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Higher timeframes hold structure, mid timeframes weigh on momentum, and LTFs rotate quickly near range edges.

• 1D/12H: constructive above 111,956, yet 113.24–114.0k is still the lid; acceptance > 113,241 would unlock 114.8k then 121–124k.
  
• 6H/4H: bearish tilt with frequent rejections below 113.2–114.0k; “normal” volumes → prefer selling range highs until 114.0k is absorbed.
  
• 2H/1H: tactical “buy the dip” while 111,956 holds, but no trend confirmation without a close > 113,241.
  
• 30m/15m: very high volume on rejections at the cap → “fake break” risk; scalping window between 112.0–113.3k.
  

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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is mixed (strong USD vs Asian risk‑on) with FOMC risk ahead; on‑chain supports a consolidation narrative with cooler TradFi flows but improving adoption.

• Macro events:
  • FOMC: rate cut expectations → directional impulse possible, but also whipsaw risk.
  • Strong USD: short‑term headwind for BTC, consistent with capping near resistance.
  • Nikkei 225 at record highs: constructive Asian risk tone partly offsets USD drag.
  
• Bitcoin analysis:
  • Adoption/flows: BBVA (custody via Ripple) and KuCoin Pay (on‑chain payments) support future demand; Metaplanet adds to “corporate accumulation.”
  • Critical zones: reclaiming 114–116k is needed to re‑ignite momentum; below 110,086 risks a 107,026 retest.
  
• On-chain data:
  • Accumulation between 108–116k; STH profitability ~60% → fragile without a push above 114–116k.
  • ETF/futures inflows cooling → limited near‑term conviction.
  
• Expected impact:
  • Range likely persists while 113.24–114.0k holds; upside requires a high‑volume breakout, otherwise expect rotations and traps.
  

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Key Takeaways
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BTC is range‑bound with a credible cap at 113.24–114.0k and a defended floor at 111,956.

- Trend: neutral to slightly bearish while 4H–6H remain down and 113,241 isn’t reclaimed.
- Best setup: rejection shorts at 113.24–114.0k or defensive longs at 112.2–111,956 with tight risk.
- Key macro: FOMC ahead, with a firm USD acting as a near‑term brake.

Stay nimble: trade the edges, and only chase breaks backed by volume. 🔔