Bitcoin consolidation may end at painfully exciting levels
Probably jumping the gun a bit, but for a high time frame this scenario would likely be quite painful for the crypto market while still fitting into a long-term buy.
It's become universally accepted that the halving should result in a break to new highs, either immediately or at some future point. Almost of biblical significance and as the prophecies foretell. Yet here we are in March 2020 and with the halving right around the corner there's precious little demand volume recently supporting the price. Don't get me wrong, my overall outlook is bullish and I'm not waiting on the sidelines for the perfect entry. However, as a trader it's difficult to discount the scenario currently unfolding. One of the ways I plan trades is trying to figure out how most people will be wrong. Lack of ATHs in Bitcoin value post-halving? Yikes. Narratives about the death of Bitcoin and the failure of certain models would abound. Watching it rise from those ashes? Priceless. Lest we forget COVID-19, a catalyst still down played by the majority of the US, an important source of demand for Bitcoin.
Onto the technical thoughts...
Head and shoulders have become one of the key memes touted by the CT denizens, so this chart is fitting. Quite symmetrical and standing ominously over the price. If confirmed, it's measured move is somewhere among the levels shown; levels that would be exceedingly painful for longs and in a location where there are likely many break even stops. It's early, which is a boon for R/R - some might say too early. But, since it's looking like a big gap for CME BTC futures, which tend to be filled quickly, the context presents a rather nice opportunity. No risk it, no biscuit.
Overall play is a short entry 8800-9100 with a relatively tight stop loss - target just under Dec '19 lows in the 6000s. Entry here could be based on bullish RSI divergence, supply exhaustion, time-averaging, or a wide entry with low margin. This is where I'd consider longs for high time frames.
It's become universally accepted that the halving should result in a break to new highs, either immediately or at some future point. Almost of biblical significance and as the prophecies foretell. Yet here we are in March 2020 and with the halving right around the corner there's precious little demand volume recently supporting the price. Don't get me wrong, my overall outlook is bullish and I'm not waiting on the sidelines for the perfect entry. However, as a trader it's difficult to discount the scenario currently unfolding. One of the ways I plan trades is trying to figure out how most people will be wrong. Lack of ATHs in Bitcoin value post-halving? Yikes. Narratives about the death of Bitcoin and the failure of certain models would abound. Watching it rise from those ashes? Priceless. Lest we forget COVID-19, a catalyst still down played by the majority of the US, an important source of demand for Bitcoin.
Onto the technical thoughts...
Head and shoulders have become one of the key memes touted by the CT denizens, so this chart is fitting. Quite symmetrical and standing ominously over the price. If confirmed, it's measured move is somewhere among the levels shown; levels that would be exceedingly painful for longs and in a location where there are likely many break even stops. It's early, which is a boon for R/R - some might say too early. But, since it's looking like a big gap for CME BTC futures, which tend to be filled quickly, the context presents a rather nice opportunity. No risk it, no biscuit.
Overall play is a short entry 8800-9100 with a relatively tight stop loss - target just under Dec '19 lows in the 6000s. Entry here could be based on bullish RSI divergence, supply exhaustion, time-averaging, or a wide entry with low margin. This is where I'd consider longs for high time frames.