Shorting Bitcoin into first capitulation from Fibonacci targets

2021年5月2日

Bitcoin is forming another wedge that will likely break down into another domed structure and perhaps a last small impulse upwards will ensue as seen before. Two C wave fib projections are almost identical ($62689, $62869) and look to be a good area to short. I'm already holding a small short but will add a little in this area. Very good chance price will touch these fibs but I doubt price can hold for any considerable length of time and will likely form a wicked candle though the fibs, perhaps on the daily or weekly candle.

Shorting is very aggressive and more patient traders will do well to wait for a bottom. That said I will sell in the first significant capitulation and reassess whether to short again on a bounce. I don't often short, but my study suggests that there may be a long way down and there to be little upside potential. No stop loss - I don't want to get stopped out by a sudden wick.

Not advice.

2021年5月3日

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Fallen out of the wedge already. Upward momentum looking weak.

2021年5月5日

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Price looks to be in an ABC. Fib target for short now 66.5K.

2021年5月10日

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Bitcoin looks very weak and sluggish. No real structure. I'm dollar cost averaging on the short, adding the the position from here.

2021年5月11日

交易开始

2021年5月15日

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Trade going well so far. Bitcoin looks like its flagging and maybe turning down to fall again. Lets see.

2021年5月17日

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Bitcoin on the move and I'll be looking out for a (very) long wicked hammer candle closing on the 4 hour chart. This is my reversal fire alarm and I will be closing my trade immediately upon seeing this - looking to re-enter around 0.618 log fib retracement.

2021年5月19日

交易结束：到达目标

Staggering out of my shorts here at 31K down to 29 if it gets there. Its been a great trade and it will probably bounce hard soon. Not going to wait for hammer.