This is long to explain, but in essence the backdrop here is a macro Fibonacci running from the base of the last bear market and placing the 0.236 on the peak of the retracement rally, 04 September 2018, before capitulation.
The hypothesis I'm working with, based on analysing previous bull runs, is that this placement gives a projection of the top of the next cycle on the 4.236 Fibonacci extension.
I've looked in other charts (linked below) at what I see as a seventh wave incoming that will complete BTC's immediate bull run.
This chart (one of three scenarios) is looking at how a micro Fibonacci on the April correction aligns to the broader Fibonacci of the bull run as just described.
I'm looking for confluence and alignment between the local Fibonacci levels and the macro Fibonacci levels. And I'm adjusting the macro channel, which is based on two points, 11 December 2020 as the bottom, and 21 February as the top, based on these alignments.
How do these three elements — channel, macro Fibonacci and local Fibonacci — line up?
I think we can all see a next step down. But where will it end?
I'll publish the three scenarios.
Feel free to comment.
In all cases, where the vertical and horizontal red lines meet with the channel is where I'm projecting the base in each respective scenario.
The one with the least confluence, in my view, is Scenario 3.
I'm leaning towards Scenario 2.
The hypothesis I'm working with, based on analysing previous bull runs, is that this placement gives a projection of the top of the next cycle on the 4.236 Fibonacci extension.
I've looked in other charts (linked below) at what I see as a seventh wave incoming that will complete BTC's immediate bull run.
This chart (one of three scenarios) is looking at how a micro Fibonacci on the April correction aligns to the broader Fibonacci of the bull run as just described.
I'm looking for confluence and alignment between the local Fibonacci levels and the macro Fibonacci levels. And I'm adjusting the macro channel, which is based on two points, 11 December 2020 as the bottom, and 21 February as the top, based on these alignments.
How do these three elements — channel, macro Fibonacci and local Fibonacci — line up?
I think we can all see a next step down. But where will it end?
I'll publish the three scenarios.
Feel free to comment.
In all cases, where the vertical and horizontal red lines meet with the channel is where I'm projecting the base in each respective scenario.
The one with the least confluence, in my view, is Scenario 3.
I'm leaning towards Scenario 2.
评论:
24 Apr 2021 11:51:16: I'll be giving updates on the Scenario 2 chart until either it's invalidated, or the whole macro perspective is invalidated.
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
