Bitcoin 4-Year Market Cycle Visualization Chart

6月8日

I created this chart mostly out of boredom.
I'm not sure that it has any value or that we can learn anything from it.
Each 4-year period starts at the previous bear market low.
You can see that the first market cycle is abbreviated, so there is a large overlap of the first 4-year period into the second 4-year period.
The overlap continues to shrink in the following cycles.
This chart also shows how long it took to surpass the previous all-time high after a bear market low.
The time it took to surpass the previous all-time high during the second and third market cycles are similar at around 2 years.
But the time it took to surpass the 2021 all-time high during this current market cycle only took 16 months.
This timing is similar to the first market cycle which took 15 months to surpass the previous all-time high.
Whether or not this is an indication that this current market cycle may more closely resemble the first market cycle rather than cycles 2 and 3 remains to be seen.
Another similarity between the second and third market cycles is when they both peaked. Both peaked just short of the three year mark.
But looking at the first cycle we can see that it peaked at almost exactly the two year mark.
If this current market cycle is mimicking the first market cycle then I would expect a peak around November of this year.
But if the pattern of the previous two market cycles continues this market cycle then I wouldn't expect a peak until late 2025.
There is no way to predict with any certainty how this market cycle will play out.
All we can do is strap in and go along for the ride.
I think that is what makes this asset class so exciting, we have our own ideas about what is coming but we really never know just how crazy it will be.