Bitcoin Cycles: Predicted Highs and Lows for 2025-2026

9月16日

In this post, we will explore the Bitcoin market cycle in an effort to predict when the next cycle's top and bottom might occur, along with their potential price levels.

Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the Four-Year Cycle Theory, peak-to-peak and bottom-to-bottom analysis, cycle timing (peak-to-bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns, to support our forecast. Lets go!

The Four-Year Cycle Theory:
The Four-Year Cycle Theory in Bitcoin refers to a recurring market cycle that aligns with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, driven largely by the dynamics of supply and demand, with the halving event acting as a significant catalyst.

The theory suggests that each four-year cycle consists of four distinct phases:

• a. Accumulation (Bear Market Bottom)
  
• b. Uptrend (Bull Market Start)
  
• c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak)
  
• d. Correction (Bear Market Crash)
  

The halving significantly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, which leads to a supply reduction. As supply decreases while demand stays the same or increases (due to growing adoption, media attention, etc.), the price often rises after the halving leading to phase c. the Parabolic Rise.

With the basics of the Four-Year Cycle Theory covered, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and bottoms.

Cycle interval analysis:
A cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price movements between key events, such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms, in the case of Bitcoin the halving event may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors it is attempted to predict future tops and bottoms.

The simplest and easiest-to-understand patterns are:

• 1. Top-to-Top
  The time difference between consecutive market tops
  
  
• 2. Top-to-Bottom
  The time difference between a market top to the next market bottom.
  
  
• 3. Bottom-to-Top
  The time difference between a market bottom to the next market top.
  
  
• 4. Bottom-to-Bottom
  The time difference between consecutive market bottoms.
  

There are however also more advanced patterns such as:

• 5. All-Time-High Break to Top
  The time difference between a break of the last cycle top to the next market top.
  
  
• 6. Halving event to top
  The time difference between the halving event to the next market top.
  

It can be observed that market cycle patterns in the 2nd cycle are shorter compared to those in the 3rd and 4th cycles. This is likely due to a lack of market maturation or the fact that it occurs before the first halving.

What stands out is the similarity between the 3rd and 4th cycle patterns. By averaging these cycles, we can predict the 5th cycle. Even more striking is that several of these predictions closely match the subsequent cycle top AND bottom.

The predicted upcoming market cycle top is predicted as follows:

• Based on the Top-to-Top pattern, the market top is forecasted for November 3, 2025.
  
• According to the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the top is expected on October 13, 2025.
  
• The Halving Event-to-Top pattern suggests a market peak on October 6, 2025.
  
• Additionally, the ATH-Break-to-Top pattern indicates that the Parabolic Rise of the current cycle will begin on December 9, 2024.
  

The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is predicted as follows:

• Based on the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 19th 2026.
  
• According to the Top-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 26th 2026.
  

Here is a graphical overview of our prediction timelines:


Price prediction using diminishing Returns:
In the context of Bitcoin and market cycles, diminishing returns refers to the phenomenon where, as Bitcoin’s market matures and more capital or resources are invested, the incremental gains or price increases from additional investments become smaller over time.

In essence this means the following:

Bull Market Peaks: As a market cycle reaches its peak, diminishing returns become evident. The price increases become smaller and less dramatic each cycle compared to earlier in the cycle.

Bear Market Corrections: Following the peak, the market often enters a correction phase where prices decline significantly. The decline also becomes smaller and less dramatic compared to earlier cycles.

In essence, this results in less dramatic bull cycles but also less severe declines during bear markets:


Here is a table overview with the values:

The effects of diminishing returns are clearly observable, with one exception: the Cycle Top to the next Cycle Bottom in Cycle 3, which saw a 6x loss. However, if we take the effects of diminishing returns into consideration, we can make the following conclusions:

• The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Top-to-Top multiplier of 3.4x, meaning it is unlikely to exceed a price of 224K.
  
  
• The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Top multiplier of 20.5x, meaning it is even more unlikely to exceed a price of 333K.
  

After considering the effects of diminishing returns, we believe a Top-to-Top multiplier in the range of 2 to 2.6 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle top price of $131,000 to $170,000.

Regarding the next bear market Bottom:

• The next Cycle Bottom will likely be below the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Bot multiplier of 5.1x, meaning it will likely be below 83K.
  

We believe a Bot-to-Bot multiplier in the range of 3 to 4 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle bottom price of $49,000 to $65,000.



Final Conclusion:

• Predicted Cycle Top: The upcoming market cycle top is forecasted to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $131,000 to $170,000.
  
  
• Predicted Cycle Bottom:
  The upcoming market cycle bottom is forecasted to occur in October or November 2026. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $49,000 to $65,000.
  

These predictions incorporate the effects of diminishing returns and historical cycle patterns.