Ok guys,
I'm sure you're all aware that BTC sprung into life today.
In the previous thread I was saying that considering bearish conditions in stock indexes I would need to see something bullish from BTC and here it is - ultra bullish, or so it would seem... 🤔
Let's look at BTC:
Since the low today's candle although not quite closed yet is currently the largest momentum candle since the low - up 2K in a day. So the chart in isolation currently is now entirely bullish.
And for as long as stock indexes rise this pump may continue and it will be interesting to see if it is impulsive or corrective from herein.
However there are some complications...
Today is a "triple witching" where all the options contracts expire on the same day. And so all markets are highly volatile as enormous sums of money play musical chairs.
And so the question is whether this BTC pump is whales jumping back into the BTC pool and crypto is the next gravy train, or is this more of a reactive splash from other markets.
To remind, metrics such as Woo's NVT and The Golden Ratio Multiplier that I showed in previous threads signal this is a buy area for BTC so this also adds to the bullish case.
...
And not many but some alts have been exceeding BTC today:
Here's APE currently up at 12% for the day, it was higher - slightly exceeded BTC.
And for those that followed my APE threads it did bounce from the retracement band that I drew months before.
...
Ok let's look at BTC dominance and there is a BIG clue about what is happening:
As you can see this enormous 3 day candle shows the BTC pump did not filter through to alts very well.
And whats more this was a bounce from the lowest point since 2018.
And the wick and fast impulse makes this a strong shakeout reversal pattern and a big clue that a reversal may be coming and a weakening of alts against BTC and thus could be an end of this mini alt season.
Its still not conclusive but if next week prints another bullish momentum candle then it is probably a sign that alts are no longer good risk to reward.
...
Now lets look elsewhere:
Ok so the most important SPX printed a big gap up today and is heading towards the 4H 50MA which is my target area to review what type of bounce this is going to be.
Even with this enormous BTC pump i'm still favouring the bearish case, just because indexes have looked so bearish + considerations below.
My preferable outcome actually is to be proven incorrect because then the metric indicators are still of valuable use.
But whichever it is I am on the fence until SPX gets to that 50MA. If it starts moving on up from there then i'll become a crypto bull again.
If it rejects that I think this BTC pump will be a C wave before trend resumes to downside.
...
Ok so now the dollar:
Firstly, everyone and their second cousin's hairdresser now think the dollar is topping.
A bearish dollar is almost certainly bullish for pretty much any asset.
In my book (I dont actually have a book yet 🙄) if too many people think the same as you its time to think again (and thats not just trading 😸). The herd are almost always wrong. In fact if the herd is "right" then you were probably wrong in assessment of what the herd thinks. They can't win - ever.
And some, even supposedly solid chartists think the dollar has topped. Plenty of gurus shilling gold and other metals have been calling this top for ages and now they are at their peak.
So anyhow - looking at DXY on the weekly time frame since the week just closed. Does this look like a chart that has topped to you 🤔?
I've applied a 20 and 50 week moving average to chart and as you can see DXY is pulling away from them both.
And it has been a bearish week but thats just one week following 3 bullish weeks and one of them was very strong, so imo its a bit early to be claiming the top and FOMOing into for the long haul off the back of that chart in its current position.
It may back down, it may not. We shall see.
...
Now the US 10 Year Bond Yield:
If you're arriving to trading only from interest in crypto the bond yield charts can be confusing to make head or tail of. For the scope of this thread it is effectively a measure of investor confidence in riskier assets such as stocks or crypto.
From the crypto bull perspective the chart is better going down.
Similar to DXY many now think that US10Y has topped and I also did think this due to the star which is on the chart is also in a key area of resistance, fibonacci etc.
Today at the open US10Y had a significant slump and it appeared there may be a head and shoulders pattern forming and it would be very bullish for assets in particular risky assets like BTC, but it recovered back to parity for the day and now at the weekly close it is just another bullish candle imo, not looking corrective much or at all even.
And if it continues up this is not great news for crypto.
So same as the dollar - It may back down, it may not. We shall see.
...
Lastly lets take a look at precious and base metals gold and copper. Although not highly correlated - metals are effectively the cousin of crypto and both have been touted as being an inflation hedge and safe haven asset. And some supposed chart experts and gurus have been saying that the gravy train is already flowing into them in tandem with dollar supposedly topping.
So with all the volatility today GOLD has done nothing and appears to be printing a bear flag right above long term support from 2021 low.
If it becomes a continuation pattern then GOLD will go tumbling down and down into the empty space below.
I have been saying GOLD is in a continuation pattern since the top.
...
Finally COPPER had a strong rally yesterday on news of shortages, but that is what news is good for - helping the little guy FOMO in to carry the bags and provide the liquidity for smart money to distribute into for the best price.
And so that was most likely a 1.618 C wave extension to form an ABC zig zag from the low. And that completed (i think) a bearish ABC running flat correction off the side of a cliff edge. It closed as a very long wicked gravestone doji / star and I entered a short at the close to hopefully complement my FCX LEAP put.
I think COPPER will be going back down the cliff shortly all while the herd come rushing in dreaming of shortages and gains courtesy of their good pal - the news.
...
TLDR: The bullish candle was a good start but I won't be buying any alts just yet due to related charts. It will be very interesting to see what happens next week.
...
All names mentioned have their individual threads linked below.
Not advice.
I'm sure you're all aware that BTC sprung into life today.
In the previous thread I was saying that considering bearish conditions in stock indexes I would need to see something bullish from BTC and here it is - ultra bullish, or so it would seem... 🤔
Let's look at BTC:
Since the low today's candle although not quite closed yet is currently the largest momentum candle since the low - up 2K in a day. So the chart in isolation currently is now entirely bullish.
And for as long as stock indexes rise this pump may continue and it will be interesting to see if it is impulsive or corrective from herein.
However there are some complications...
Today is a "triple witching" where all the options contracts expire on the same day. And so all markets are highly volatile as enormous sums of money play musical chairs.
And so the question is whether this BTC pump is whales jumping back into the BTC pool and crypto is the next gravy train, or is this more of a reactive splash from other markets.
To remind, metrics such as Woo's NVT and The Golden Ratio Multiplier that I showed in previous threads signal this is a buy area for BTC so this also adds to the bullish case.
...
And not many but some alts have been exceeding BTC today:
Here's APE currently up at 12% for the day, it was higher - slightly exceeded BTC.
And for those that followed my APE threads it did bounce from the retracement band that I drew months before.
...
Ok let's look at BTC dominance and there is a BIG clue about what is happening:
As you can see this enormous 3 day candle shows the BTC pump did not filter through to alts very well.
And whats more this was a bounce from the lowest point since 2018.
And the wick and fast impulse makes this a strong shakeout reversal pattern and a big clue that a reversal may be coming and a weakening of alts against BTC and thus could be an end of this mini alt season.
Its still not conclusive but if next week prints another bullish momentum candle then it is probably a sign that alts are no longer good risk to reward.
...
Now lets look elsewhere:
Ok so the most important SPX printed a big gap up today and is heading towards the 4H 50MA which is my target area to review what type of bounce this is going to be.
Even with this enormous BTC pump i'm still favouring the bearish case, just because indexes have looked so bearish + considerations below.
My preferable outcome actually is to be proven incorrect because then the metric indicators are still of valuable use.
But whichever it is I am on the fence until SPX gets to that 50MA. If it starts moving on up from there then i'll become a crypto bull again.
If it rejects that I think this BTC pump will be a C wave before trend resumes to downside.
...
Ok so now the dollar:
Firstly, everyone and their second cousin's hairdresser now think the dollar is topping.
A bearish dollar is almost certainly bullish for pretty much any asset.
In my book (I dont actually have a book yet 🙄) if too many people think the same as you its time to think again (and thats not just trading 😸). The herd are almost always wrong. In fact if the herd is "right" then you were probably wrong in assessment of what the herd thinks. They can't win - ever.
And some, even supposedly solid chartists think the dollar has topped. Plenty of gurus shilling gold and other metals have been calling this top for ages and now they are at their peak.
So anyhow - looking at DXY on the weekly time frame since the week just closed. Does this look like a chart that has topped to you 🤔?
I've applied a 20 and 50 week moving average to chart and as you can see DXY is pulling away from them both.
And it has been a bearish week but thats just one week following 3 bullish weeks and one of them was very strong, so imo its a bit early to be claiming the top and FOMOing into for the long haul off the back of that chart in its current position.
It may back down, it may not. We shall see.
...
Now the US 10 Year Bond Yield:
If you're arriving to trading only from interest in crypto the bond yield charts can be confusing to make head or tail of. For the scope of this thread it is effectively a measure of investor confidence in riskier assets such as stocks or crypto.
From the crypto bull perspective the chart is better going down.
Similar to DXY many now think that US10Y has topped and I also did think this due to the star which is on the chart is also in a key area of resistance, fibonacci etc.
Today at the open US10Y had a significant slump and it appeared there may be a head and shoulders pattern forming and it would be very bullish for assets in particular risky assets like BTC, but it recovered back to parity for the day and now at the weekly close it is just another bullish candle imo, not looking corrective much or at all even.
And if it continues up this is not great news for crypto.
So same as the dollar - It may back down, it may not. We shall see.
...
Lastly lets take a look at precious and base metals gold and copper. Although not highly correlated - metals are effectively the cousin of crypto and both have been touted as being an inflation hedge and safe haven asset. And some supposed chart experts and gurus have been saying that the gravy train is already flowing into them in tandem with dollar supposedly topping.
So with all the volatility today GOLD has done nothing and appears to be printing a bear flag right above long term support from 2021 low.
If it becomes a continuation pattern then GOLD will go tumbling down and down into the empty space below.
I have been saying GOLD is in a continuation pattern since the top.
...
Finally COPPER had a strong rally yesterday on news of shortages, but that is what news is good for - helping the little guy FOMO in to carry the bags and provide the liquidity for smart money to distribute into for the best price.
And so that was most likely a 1.618 C wave extension to form an ABC zig zag from the low. And that completed (i think) a bearish ABC running flat correction off the side of a cliff edge. It closed as a very long wicked gravestone doji / star and I entered a short at the close to hopefully complement my FCX LEAP put.
I think COPPER will be going back down the cliff shortly all while the herd come rushing in dreaming of shortages and gains courtesy of their good pal - the news.
...
TLDR: The bullish candle was a good start but I won't be buying any alts just yet due to related charts. It will be very interesting to see what happens next week.
...
All names mentioned have their individual threads linked below.
Not advice.
评论:
LIKE / COMMENT if you appreciate what I'm doing here 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻.
评论:
BTC looking like it may push on a bit here. Its definitely worth paying attention here and who knows BTC may be a leading indicator to other markets.
What I want to see is what type of wave BTC is going to print here and that will take a little time.
If it goes off with a bang upwards thats fine because it will come back down just as fast most likely and provide a good entry.
When I wrote this yesterday I did have my bear hat on but I am now somewhat warming to the idea that there may be a worthwhile bounce play here and maybe even a big bounce if this is in fact an accumulation.
So I'm going just going to watch for now and we'll see - perhaps i'll be buying some alts again soon enough.
If BTC could print a nice tight descending channel that would be ideal.
What I want to see is what type of wave BTC is going to print here and that will take a little time.
If it goes off with a bang upwards thats fine because it will come back down just as fast most likely and provide a good entry.
When I wrote this yesterday I did have my bear hat on but I am now somewhat warming to the idea that there may be a worthwhile bounce play here and maybe even a big bounce if this is in fact an accumulation.
So I'm going just going to watch for now and we'll see - perhaps i'll be buying some alts again soon enough.
If BTC could print a nice tight descending channel that would be ideal.
评论:
In the ideal scenario BTC could do something like this.
It won't of course it will do something exotic but if it did a descent like this at some point that would be what I'm looking for.
It won't of course it will do something exotic but if it did a descent like this at some point that would be what I'm looking for.
评论:
Or with shorter time frame or whatever.
I'm taking a break from TradingView but you can find me every day in my Telegram Trading Group 🧐
Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
I aim to have the first video ready for either next Saturday the 17th or the following Saturday the 24th. I have been warned by a mod for suggesting a private message but hopefully they won't mind me saying that you are welcome to talk to me about it if you so wish. Either way i'll let you know.