The reverse H&S pattern finally came true. But things are not coming along "by the books" since I think there will be no trend reversal.
The completion of the H&S brought us slightly outside the bearish channel that BTC was following (yellow circle). Even if this could signal a breakout in my opinion it is not!
Volumes are not supporting such a breakout being lower than average and definitely smaller than the ones creating major positive breakouts.
Even if BTC uptrends from the neckline there will be a pretty strong resistance around 10400$ that happens to be the current level of the 200 days EMA as well.
My take on is that it will still have a bearish development with the three major support levels highlighted in red.
Notice how the middle line around 5700 I drew before the H&S development was actually the "head" of the figure. That could be one of the supports to re-test in a future fall.
To complete the analysis I would mention the fact that we are definitely in a downtrend for BTC. Like most bubbles (and you would concurr with me that such an escalation in prices till 19k is typical of a bubble) the downtrend is characterized by the fear/capitulation phase. I think we're into it. Prices, even if they rise, won't be at 20k levels again.
And if by chance I'm wrong we need to look at the Bitcoin chart under a different timeframe. We are then in the denial/bull trap phase. Things might improve but it's only temporary.
As usual, this is not a trading advice, simply my idea on this much volatile commodity.
The completion of the H&S brought us slightly outside the bearish channel that BTC was following (yellow circle). Even if this could signal a breakout in my opinion it is not!
Volumes are not supporting such a breakout being lower than average and definitely smaller than the ones creating major positive breakouts.
Even if BTC uptrends from the neckline there will be a pretty strong resistance around 10400$ that happens to be the current level of the 200 days EMA as well.
My take on is that it will still have a bearish development with the three major support levels highlighted in red.
Notice how the middle line around 5700 I drew before the H&S development was actually the "head" of the figure. That could be one of the supports to re-test in a future fall.
To complete the analysis I would mention the fact that we are definitely in a downtrend for BTC. Like most bubbles (and you would concurr with me that such an escalation in prices till 19k is typical of a bubble) the downtrend is characterized by the fear/capitulation phase. I think we're into it. Prices, even if they rise, won't be at 20k levels again.
And if by chance I'm wrong we need to look at the Bitcoin chart under a different timeframe. We are then in the denial/bull trap phase. Things might improve but it's only temporary.
As usual, this is not a trading advice, simply my idea on this much volatile commodity.
评论:
We are trading exactly on the 200 days EMA. 10.430 is the next resistance. If that level is broken with supporting volumes then BTC can still grow, otherwise we'll have a pull-back towards 9k area.