BTC/USD finishes second big cycle. Time for the third?

2018年4月5日

This "analysis" only wants to provide a simple long term view by only considering the cycle bitcoin went through twice already.


The price action of bitcoin shows a simple pattern that is dividable in four steps:

1.Sideways movement from the upper to the lower end of the natural growth channel (NGC):
2.Climbing along the lower end of the NGC
3.Heavy price action. Movement from the lower to the upper side of the NGC
4.Bubble formation and Bubble burst -> reentering of the NGC

Cycle#1:

1.Sideways movement from the upper to the lower end of the natural growth channel (NGC):
2012-01-02 until 2012-11-06

2.Climbing along the lower end of the NGC:
2012-11-06 until 2012-12-31

3.Heavy price action. Movement from the lower to the upper side of the NGC:
2012-12-31 until 2013-02-11

4.Bubble formation and Bubble burst -> reentering of the NGC:
2013-02-11 until 2015-03-16


Cycle#2:

1.Sideways movement from the upper to the lower end of the natural growth channel (NGC):
2015-03-16 until 2015-09-28

2.Climbing along the lower end of the NGC:
2015-09-28 until 2017-03-20

3.Heavy price action. Movement from the lower to the upper side of the NGC:
2017-03-20 until 2017-08-07

4.Bubble formation and Bubble burst -> reentering of the NGC:
2017-08-07 until 2018-03-26

Time for the next cycle?

I want to state that i am completely aware that the situation of bitcoin changed dramatically from 2012 to 2018, however we saw the same pattern twice already.
History might repeat and you might know now what happens next.

2018年10月30日

交易结束：到达目标

UPDATE: We are just hitting the bottom of the natural growth channel. If the cycle repeats, the next step would be steady/exponential growth

henxe, my outlook is bullish