Bitcoin shake out,7400 was still too strong to break,what's next

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After staying above the 7300/7340 for a very long time yesterday, the support eventually broke and an immediate dump happened. This is not normal selling if your wondering how this can happen so fast all of a sudden, This is mostly forced selling, meaning stops getting triggered of long positions which turn into sell orders that on their turn trigger stops below their levels again, up to a point where buyers catch up the selling volume. Where buyers think this price is a good one to try to buy again and of course, level where the people who shorted the high are taking profit and buying the shorts back again. I mentioned yesterday that i saw allot of distribution on Bitmex, open intrest went up to the big number of around 820 mil, at the low we just made it dropped to around 680 mil. So around 140 mil got liquidated in 1 hour. These factors are always important but are no guarantees of course, but it did show a big move was about to happen.

From a quick look what i can think of is this. Don't think we will see another 300 point drop the coming hours, but there can still be some drops. We probably go sideways around these level for some time. For the bulls we need to see the price get stable around here, see some push back from the bulls and some shorts closing. While i am writing this there is 80 point bounce up that is already creating shorts to get liquidated. Amazing how people short the low or buy the high with 100x. Anyway, can still make some small drops but as far as i can see now, should not break the 6800ish.
On the right we see a possible bearish scenario, where we could see a bounce up as mentioned in the last update, but with the danger of a right shoulder to form a big H&S that could end this whole bullish move.

Before panicking, lets put things a bit in perspective.

My first thought says this move is a big shake out, because it was probably just a dump to shake out longs as mentioned above. So it does not show what the intention of the market is yet. For the coming days, the 6200 is the turning point for me from mid-term bullish to bearish. If the 6750 breaks think we can assume the 6300/6500 support area can be tested as well. So it will be an important week now. At the moment allot of variables so difficult to say now, what will happen the coming day or 2. On the left where you can see those yellow circles, it shows a similar move at a similar stage. This means, assuming the mid-term trend is still bullish, this drop is nothing more than a shake out and that the 6800ish should hold as support and we should continue to go up again within 1 to 3 days. As you know, i have mentioned the 7300/7400 level to be THE turning point between the longer term down or up trend. The bulls have clearly lost the first fight but the bears have not yet won the war.

In hindsight, a lesson for next time maybe. When i gave that warning yesterday for a possible Bart move (read my previous analysis) after that failed attempt to break the 7400 and that immediate push down, seems the whales already showed their hand there. But the price stayed above the 7320 for many hours and more attempts were made to break the 7400 again. So it seemed like the whales that tried that Bart move, lost the fight, waited for volume to drop (which it did by the way, half a day later) or buying power was still too strong at that moment so bears decided to wait.

Previous analysis:

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By the way, i still favor the bullish scenario :)

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This was the Bart move i was referring to from yesterday

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So far still some moves up and down as i mentioned earlier My best guess for the coming hours is something like this. Now this is not trade advice, this is more something we want to see to keep the bullish scenario intact. The market took quite the hit today, alts got dumped big time even, so it won't be easy to recover from this blow. So do not expect a big rally any time soon. The bears have the upper hand now, but bitcoin and alts are all on big support levels now.

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Still not allot has changed but there are a few things i saw though the past half hour. There was a buy order on Bitmex of 60/70 mil pushing the price up to the high we just made. Obviously a fake order! They do these tricks more often this year. Almost all the time the price drops afterwards.

Other thing is, there is another big hidden buy wall on Bitfinex. Seems he is doing his thing once again. So far there were 1500 btc sold in to it and it is still standing. This whale (assuming it's the same one) did this maybe 10 times the past 2 weeks. He started the first time (that i saw) around 6250 up to 7200 i think. There are some people who made a record of this, he probably bought around 32.000 bitcoins with an average price around 6750 i think (correct me if i am wrong). Don't know where this info is posted but my members showed me that overview. Probably someone here that knows.

This is no guarantee of course that the price will simply go up again, but this whale did manage to influence the price allot the past 2 weeks. Even if this wall breaks (because it has happened before) they sometimes still catch up to 100 points below the hidden buy wall. But the last time clearly failed of course, think the last hidden wall was around 7300 maybe.

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So the hidden buy wall broke eventually and the price dropped 200 points in seconds. It moves a bit to quick but i think there is another hidden buy wall at 6700 now, but i am not sure if i saw it correct or not. So we broke a very important support level now, the market is taking a big hit now. Some real panic selling at the moment, allot of alts are also breaking support levels now with very high volume from the ones i just peeked at. The mid-term bull trend is not completely off the table but the bears have the upper hand again. This is quite the dump in 1 day but at the moment there is no bounce up at all. So looking pretty bad at the moment. Dont think it's any use to say which level is support level, because this is panic selling at the moment.

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The open intrest on Bitmex dropped i think with 40 mil in that drop but in this flag it has increased with almost 40 mil again. Best guess, people shorting at this low. Problem is one can't now which side is closing and which side is opening a new order.

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Holy crap, this is a dump from the first few months of this year. Straight line to the 6200. If the 6200ish breaks and with this panic it could just be that V shape low i talked about 4 months ago, of which i thought might not happen anymore a few weeks ago. Because the Alts did make it and Bitcoin did not. Made it's first tiny bounce now, so i little sign of life at the moment.

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So far that tiny bounce worked out and we are slightly higher now. The bifinex whales have changed their game plan it seems. The hidden buy walls clearly did not work so since the low we just made they have put in buy orders of 200 to 800 btc, combined like 2K btc, still allot got sold into them but they just added again.

When ignoring all of this, we can see a bear flag in the making from this huge dump. But if they can push this above the 6500/6550 it might get invalidated. That doesn't mean the only way is up, but it usually does mean the speed (and panic) of this drop is probably over for now. The 6200ish is still holding but as i mentioned earlier today after that 500 point drop we made, small chance that we just rally up again within a few hours. Now the drop has become even bigger, so even if we make small rally now it usually will test the support at least once again. We can assume we will stay in these levels again for quite some time. Just hope it won't be 3 weeks of sideways movement again.

There is always a small chance for a V shape correction up but i think the market is still too weak to see something like that happening.

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Hell on earth for the bulls yesterday and the bears broke open the champagne bottles. At the moment, the on the left we can see a bear flag or a triangle. Think it will break up upwards to start to make a big bear flag (on the right) where we will probably stay in for several days i think. This big bear flag could bring the prices (in theory) in to the low 5K's even. The 6200 (6100) is still holding after a few tests now but at the moment things still looks very bad since we have not yet bounced up above the 6500. This means there is no bullish power at all at the moment. Doesn't mean it can't change, this small triangle can be the first baby step. But if this is all what the bulls got, than chances are VERY big we will just drop again within a few days.
Difficult to say what price would bring things in balance again, but i think the 6700/6800 would be the level to break for the bulls to have at least a chance again

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When zooming in a bit more, looks like a small bearish wedge that could once again bring the price to the 62xx low. Need to stay above 7350ish to hold the drop off and make a chance to make that jump up as the triangle shows on the left