Bloody Christmas? [Bitcoin and Altcoins with unusual movement]

2021年12月15日

Hi.
Looking at some on-chain data on several blockchains, we have an unusual movement.

Price Drawdown from ATH
The percent drawdown of the asset's price from the previous all-time high.
When the value is equal to zero, we have no drawdown.
When it is less than zero we have a drawdown multiplied by 100 (percentage).

When the indicator hits the top several times at zero value, it indicates a lot of profit taking.
And when it reaches a value less than -0.50, it indicates a lot of loss taking (a huge drawdown).
Since nothing lasts forever, either for good or for bad, this indicator serves to demonstrate the exhaustion of both sides, bulls and bears alike.

What the graphic indicates:
now a maximum drawdown of 100% has been reached since the last all-time high.
Surprisingly, this was higher than the historical value of -0.92 in November/2011.
What can we interpret from this abrupt drop? Perhaps market players agreed to divest their positions at any cost to avoid further losses.
But looking back, the deeper the better the price to buy.

Mean Transaction Fees in USD
The total amount of fees paid to miners. Issued (minted) coins are not included.
High fees mean paying to perform a transaction at any cost!

When rates peaked, the price fell shortly thereafter.
Will it happen again? I do not know.

Mean Transfer Volume in USD
The mean value of a transfer. Only successful transfers are counted.

Looking at this indicator, when we have an increase in volume, we have a price increase.
And when we have a decrease in volume, we have a drop in price.
Right now we have a trend towards increasing volume.
As with the fees indicator, we had a peak in this volume, and generally after that we have a drop in price.

Conclusion
Caution is required. The on-chain data is diverging.
The Price Drawdown indicates a great time to buy, because when it reaches the maximum drawdown, right after the price goes up.
On the other hand, unusual transfers and fees indicate a possible downward movement.

However, it should be noted that it is not because an event occurred in the past that it will necessarily be repeated in the future.
These indicators are just an auxiliary tool.
The best indicator that exists is the price itself, and it will tell us what will happen from now on.