Bitcoin - Has fake rally came to an end?

Recently we noted that migration of capital out of Russia would benefit cryptocurrencies. We even noted that it was possible for the downtrend in cryptocurrencies to cease and reverse to the upside, especially if the general stock market would stop ongoing selloff. However, so far this has not been the case. The general stock market has been volatile and relatively weak. Meanwhile Bitcoin experienced a short lived bounce in price. However, the rally came to a quick halt and BTCUSD fell back to 38 000 USD region. At the moment we are neutral on Bitcoin. We will watch its price action closely in the following days and we will reevaluate our view after the FOMC and its rate decision.

Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It can be observed that the price action of BTCUSD has been sideways within the last 6 weeks; this is reflected in the low value of ADX.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. Stochastic and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. ADX contains relatively low value which suggests that no trend is present. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI started to flatten which signals neutrality; however, its medium-term bearish structure remains intact. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- show a bearish trend; meanwhile ADX signals presence of no significant trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Though, 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA are due to generate crossover which would bolster bearish case for BTCUSD.

Support and resistance
Short-term support lies at 32 950.72 USD and short-term resistance at 45 850 USD. Major support level is at 28 600 USD and major resistance level is at 69 000 USD. Resistance 1 is at 52 098.60 USD.

Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.