Reasons for feeling bearish:
Wedge breakout projected targets reach prices that confirm a successful bull rally from that one bounce above major support we had on the 30th of May. The automatic rally that followed was weak and patient traders will be waiting for a retest of support before going Long.
New money has already come in and this is supported by mempool data surrounding the 6th of June. Early adopter and early majority money has already entered because this bull run starting the 6th of June is very exoteric - unlike in April.
We are seeing Bart Simpson patterns, meaning whale bots have a heavier presence and controlling price more than general market trend. Why is price being suppressed then? How are whales making money keeping price inside a trading range when new money considers coming bull phase as common knowledge? Is there really a divergence between demand and incentive to short in the market? We see only a 0.8% increase in shorts over longs since 11pm UTC June 5th.
The combined depth chart buy wall may be strong but there is heavier sell volume coming into the resistance price than buy volume approaching support - though of course this is not much to go off given we’re talking BTC here.
Given the Bart Simpson pattern, the high and low bounces in the wedge are less crowd psychology representations of a real wedge. This might not matter. Though, the only two reaction highs forming this wedge did not bounce, but ran along it. To me this betrays the wedge resistance to represent a larger dynamic. A quite tangible example is the 23.6% fib retracement of the previous market top lines up exactly.
A minor theory regarding the Barts: a break up confirms we’ve left the accumulation phase of this market bottom. As we can see, and as confirmed by the OBV on every time frame but the 2hr, price action sees green spikes to keep price within the trading range, but there’s been two long red trickle downs from those ranges, both after touching resistance. These green “pumps” could be bots synchronistically relieving sell pressure, not actually pumping. This makes more sense than pumping during an accumulation TR the market is happy with. Again, this plays into the narrative the whales scalp market consensus (and the crypto market is so damn easy to read and loud online)
There’s a slight bearish divergence between those two reaction highs on the RSI. On the 1hr momentum on the accumulation (chaikin oscillator) is slowing down when buy pressure is rising. The STOCH on the 1hr and 2hr support a downward move, though a downward move might not be significant to the wedge. Saying this, there’s bullish indicators I have not provided in general they are displaying mixed signals.
The 2014 boom and bust cycle - fractal if you will - shows us one more dip breaking major support in about to happen before a bullish view on BTC can resume. I don’t know why this view, regardless of 2014 price movement, makes sense to me, both for the health of the for the game of the whales. Perhaps because the next bull phase doesn’t have any real world capacity to break out of the year’s wedge and the next bull run inside the wedge is small game to what BTC has seen recently - so we exit the wedge and build momentum from an all time low of the year. Also continuing the pattern for the 4th triangle its just too conforming, I think 3 cycles of Bull and Bear has finished this pattern. If we do break upwards to the ascending wedge’s target, I feel that’ll start a crash or very prolonged sideways movement. I can’t provide anything to back up this view.
Well, i think that’s it. I didn’t plan what I’d say to write this much. Wish I could wrap it up to a better holistic picture. Basically, I think there’s a lot going on right now and I don’t think pure TA is going to punch through this time.