Bitcoin - The Yer of the RAT - Chinese New Year Analysis

2020年1月19日

My weird thirst for knowledge and analysis brings us to another study. This time we are going to take a look at and breakdown Price Action during the Chinese New Years.

This is neither the time or the place to write an article on the Chinese New Years, so I'll leave you to research that to your hearts content. What we should be aware of is there are many cultures involved and they al celebrate a bit differently. Some start a week before, some a few days before and some the night before. Some celebrate for one day while others for three, some for seven and there are even some who celebrate for fifteen days.

What is the PURPOSE?
I believe that the Asian Market contributes a lot to Bitcoin trading. Volume, Price Action, Mining, etc. All these things are intertwined and just like here in America during Major Holidays, traders can lose focus of the charts and spend more time with Family and less time trading. I will be looking for any anomalies that show up when the Chinese New Year is happening to see if there are any similarities or weight to this theory.




The knowledge that is readily available is the actual Date of the Chinese New Year and that will be the center of the focus here.

2012 - 23 Jan Dragon - Monday
2013 - 10 Feb Snake - Sunday
2014 - 31 Jan Horse - Friday
2015 - 19 Feb Goat - Thursday
2016 - 8 Feb Monkey - Monday
2017 - 28 Jan Rooster - Saturday
2018 - 16 Feb Dog - Friday
2019 - 5 Feb Pig - Tuesday
2020 - 25 Jan Rat - Saturday

We are using BitSTAMP for the history.
Anyway, enough of the intro, let's get rolling...

2012 - Monday, January 23 - The Year of the Dragon
(I know. The price action in 2012 was absolute garbage but we will look nonetheless)

The preceding trend was upward
The preceding volume was trending down
The week before started making the turn for a pullback
The Day Itself - Nothing unusual
The first week - continued down with aggressive lows
The second week - continued down with some aggressive lows but recovered high





2013 - Sunday, February 10 - The Year of the Snake

The preceding trend was upward - Slightly
The preceding volume was flat
The week before continue rise from trend
The Day Itself - Nothing unusual
The first week - 6/8 candles in a row - steady rise
The second week - The Rise continues
Volume - Nothing unusual during the run but very low on the day before and the day of




2014 - Friday, January 31 - The Year of the Horse

The preceding trend was down
The preceding volume was declining
The week before - Down
The Day Itself - Doji - Indecision
The first week - Day one dump - Day 2-7 retrace dump
The second week - Steady selloff
Volume - Very low - Built up during selloff at the end of the second week





2015 - Thursday, February 19 - The Year of the GOAT

The preceding trend was down
The preceding volume was flat, ramp up and ramp down
The week before - Up with a heavy pullback
The Day Itself - Nothing special
The first week - Slow rise ascending tri
The second week - Down M-TH - Up on Weekend
Volume - Overall steady decline - Last Saturday pump

Notes: That upward sloping trend was the trend from the 2013 festival




2016 - Monday, February 16 - The Year of the Monkey

The preceding trend was symmetrical triangle
The preceding volume was declining - one bump
The week before - Up with a slow drop
The Day Itself - Bearish, nothing special
The first week - Steady Rise
The second week - Steady Rise - Broke Pattern
Volume - Overall fairly flat

Notes: The Weekend Volume before the New Year was incredibly low




2017 - Saturday, January 28 - The Year of the Rooster

The preceding trend was upward from year prior
The preceding volume was rising with quick decline
The week before - Good upward push
The Day Itself - Doji - Very little trading
The first week - Pullback with retrace
The second week - Steady Rise - Great push
Volume - Decline until week 2

Notes: Upward sloping trend in white is from the Year of the Monkey the year prior





2018 - Friday, February 16 - The Year of the Dog

The preceding trend was sharp decline from (ATH)
The preceding volume was fairly even with some breakouts
The week before - Huge trend reversal
The Day Itself - Nothing special
The first week - Another big push to the upside
The second week - Local high and then pullback
Volume - Big pop for reversal week before - then pretty flat

Notes: This 5920 was a key level before the 2018 Low was achieved




2019 - Tuesday, February 05 - The Year of the Pig

The preceding trend was symmetrical triangle (the 2018 bottom
The preceding volume was a sharp decline
The week before - Decline - higher lows
The Day Itself - Nothing special
The first week - 4 day decline - Friday pump
The second week - Steady Decline
Volume - Week before down but slow rise after that

Notes: This is the Same Trend from the year of the MONKEY - That was 2015





---2020---NOT READY
2020 - Saturday, January 25 - The Year of the Rat

The preceding trend was heavily down
The preceding volume was declining with some pops
The week before - Big push to the high side
The Day Itself -
The first week -
The second week -
Volume - High with sharp decline the week before

Notes: This is the Same Trend from the year of the MONKEY - That was 2015 - Still the SAME Trend







Cleaning up the chart with a fully Zoomed out view..
I saw a few things of interest




These two downward sloping trends are nearly parallel

But look at the trend from the Year of the SNAKE in 2013 - That trend Broke to end the 2014 Bear Market and it is the same trend to END the 2017 BULL Market

The trend from the Year of the Monkey held the Rooster and the 2018 Low as well as the Year of the Pig.

Now Nothing is official yet but if we don't trade under 3122 again, then this trend would have started the next BULL market.






Results for the Three Week Period
Results for the Week of

2012 was such a joke that I avoided it altogether. The price action was incredible.

2013
Week of - 15.33% Gain
3 Weeks - 54.35% Gain




2014
Week of - 0.04% Gain
3 Weeks - -18.32% Loss




2015
Week of - 0.77% Gain
3 Weeks - 15.37% Gain




2016
Week of - 8% Gain
3 Weeks - 19% Gain




2017
Week of - -1.27% Loss
3 Weeks - 23% Gain




2018
Week of - 29.02% Gain
3 Weeks - 17.08% Gain




2019
Week of - 6.93% Gain
3 Weeks - 2.64% Gain




So it turns out that the Chinese New Year, or at least the Week of and the 3 Week period is actually usually profitable.

Only 1 year showed a loss during the week of and it was a 1.27% loss in 2017. The three week period was a 23% gain however.

For the 3 Week period, only 1 year had a loss and it was an 18.32% loss in 2014. The Week of had a tiny 0.04% Gain

The biggest Week of Gain -
2018 - 29.02% Gain

The biggest Week of Loss -
2017 - 1.27% Loss (The only Week of Loss)

The biggest 3 Week period Gain -
2013 - 54.35% Gain

The biggest 3 Week period Loss -
2014 - 18.32% Loss (The only 3 Week Loss)