BTC with a minor pullback before takeoff

2021年10月21日

It has been a while, but I think quality goes over quantity :)

As you can see on the chart, BTC had quite the comeback. After a period of accumulation, we saw a sign of strength and the price advancing beyond the former monthly level of resistance, which now functions as support (white thick level line @61629$ on my chart). You can expect a small pullback to that level or at least close to it (~@62K) and then another takeoff. However, set your stop-loss accordingly, because there is also a possibilty that some will sell their BTC to realize profit.

Data from glassnode shows that 99.7% of BTC supply is currently in profit - so chances are not that high that people will sell soon:
twitter.com/glassnode/status/1450615070556241925

Another level to watch for is 75K, where we could expect another pullback to 61629$ (monthly level), since people might try to realize some of their profits.

One should carefully watch the price advance in correlation with RSI/Volume. Spotting a divergence is crucial to time a trend reversal - so be prepared for a volatile market, since altcoins are affected, as well.

For price target references I use my monthly/weekly levels of resistance (white / purple lines).

As always, do your own due diligence. This is no financial advice, so trade with care!

For reasons of transparency:
I am invested in PUNDIX and TTFUEL with 1/4 of my account size. The rest is buffer cash for buying dips.

2021年10月24日

注释

As I was looking at the chart and switched to the weekly and monthly frame, two things caught my interest:

1. On the weekly and monthly timeframe the MACD line and signal line are getting close to overextended - yet their is some buffer (that could be the 75K), but keep that in mind.
2. Switching to the Heikin-Ashi candles, there is a long wick on the monthly candle, indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Now these hints do not mean that the play is over, but make sure to take profits, when you feel right about it and don't become greedy. Profit target of 75K is still in play.

2021年10月27日

注释

It seems that my comment from October 24th, 2021 came just in time. In my original idea I had talked about setting up a stop-loss - that should have come handy in here. You can see that the price drop was rejected at a weekly level (purple line) @58324$ that I had drawed in a few weeks ago (switch to the 4h timeframe). It's obvious noone knows the future and that is why we use stop-loss, but for now this could mean two things:

1. We are experiencing a shakeout: Large investors try to shake out the retail investors and buy their BTC holdings for a bargain, before the initial run.
2. Greed and Fear is driving the sell-off and we could see another strong pullback to the monthly level around 45K.