In this idea, I identify what I call the 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross.
They are the the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA.
- With 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, this is statistically significant in the macro economic trend of Bitcoin and currently has a with 100% success rate.
a. "Hidden Death Cross" consistently delivers a significant market contraction
b. "True Golden Cross" consistently delivers a significant market expansion
This trend displays significant statistical probability, and while I propose we cannot expect future cycles to repeat past results, we can assume there is a high likely hood of the trend repeating in some form and used past results as guidelines for future performance.
Weekly "Hidden Death Cross" Data
5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC);
1. 26-Sep-2011: -60%
2. 07-Jul-2014: -73%
3. 28-May-2018: -62%
4. 24-Feb-2020: -61%
5. 30-Aug-2021: .......
6. .......................
Success Rate: 100%
Failure Rate: 0%
Average Contraction: -64%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min -57% / Max -71%
BTC Weekly "True Golden Cross" Data
4 True Golden Cross (TGC);
1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890%
2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192%
3. 29-Apr-2019: +179%
4. 03-Aug-2020: +531%
5. ......................
Success Rate: 100%
Failure Rate: 0%
Average Expansion: +6'198%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min - / Max 15'000%
Comparison wit the famous Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Trend
BTC Daily "Death Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 7 Death Cross (DC);
1. 10-Apr-2014: +56%
2. 07-Sep-2014: -69%
3. 15-Sep-2015: +23%
4. 04-Apr-2018: -60%
5. 22-Oct-2019: -29%%
6. 26-Mar-2020: +50%
7. 23-Jun-2021: -22%
8. .......................
Success Rate: 57%
Failure Rate: 43%
Average Contraction: -50%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min -20% / Max -70%
BTC Daily "Golden Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 5 Golden Cross (DC);
1. 08-Apr-2012: +24'169%
2. 13-July-2014: -23%
3. 21-July-2015: -30%
4. 02-Nov-2015: +6722%
5. 25-Apr-2019: +163%
6. 17-Feb-2020: -62%
7. 23-May-2020: +643%
8. 15-Sep-2021: .......
9. ........................
Success Rate: 57%
Failure Rate: 43%
Average Expansion: +7'924%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min - / Max 21'000%
Additional Hidden Trend
Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Triplets.
In addition to the standard crosses, we can identify a pattern of 3 crosses together;
1. Daily Death Cross, Golden Cross, Death Cross: This results in a bear market with a 100% success rate
2. Golden Cross, Death Cross, Golden Cross: This results in a bull market with 100% success rate
I will be posting on these trends more, since they are statistically significant and I believe will continue to display similar results, regardless of the FOMO or FUD that may be happening at the time.
yemala
They are the the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA.
- With 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, this is statistically significant in the macro economic trend of Bitcoin and currently has a with 100% success rate.
a. "Hidden Death Cross" consistently delivers a significant market contraction
b. "True Golden Cross" consistently delivers a significant market expansion
This trend displays significant statistical probability, and while I propose we cannot expect future cycles to repeat past results, we can assume there is a high likely hood of the trend repeating in some form and used past results as guidelines for future performance.
Weekly "Hidden Death Cross" Data
5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC);
1. 26-Sep-2011: -60%
2. 07-Jul-2014: -73%
3. 28-May-2018: -62%
4. 24-Feb-2020: -61%
5. 30-Aug-2021: .......
6. .......................
Success Rate: 100%
Failure Rate: 0%
Average Contraction: -64%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min -57% / Max -71%
BTC Weekly "True Golden Cross" Data
4 True Golden Cross (TGC);
1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890%
2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192%
3. 29-Apr-2019: +179%
4. 03-Aug-2020: +531%
5. ......................
Success Rate: 100%
Failure Rate: 0%
Average Expansion: +6'198%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min - / Max 15'000%
Comparison wit the famous Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Trend
BTC Daily "Death Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 7 Death Cross (DC);
1. 10-Apr-2014: +56%
2. 07-Sep-2014: -69%
3. 15-Sep-2015: +23%
4. 04-Apr-2018: -60%
5. 22-Oct-2019: -29%%
6. 26-Mar-2020: +50%
7. 23-Jun-2021: -22%
8. .......................
Success Rate: 57%
Failure Rate: 43%
Average Contraction: -50%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min -20% / Max -70%
BTC Daily "Golden Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 5 Golden Cross (DC);
1. 08-Apr-2012: +24'169%
2. 13-July-2014: -23%
3. 21-July-2015: -30%
4. 02-Nov-2015: +6722%
5. 25-Apr-2019: +163%
6. 17-Feb-2020: -62%
7. 23-May-2020: +643%
8. 15-Sep-2021: .......
9. ........................
Success Rate: 57%
Failure Rate: 43%
Average Expansion: +7'924%
2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence):
Min - / Max 21'000%
Additional Hidden Trend
Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Triplets.
In addition to the standard crosses, we can identify a pattern of 3 crosses together;
1. Daily Death Cross, Golden Cross, Death Cross: This results in a bear market with a 100% success rate
2. Golden Cross, Death Cross, Golden Cross: This results in a bull market with 100% success rate
I will be posting on these trends more, since they are statistically significant and I believe will continue to display similar results, regardless of the FOMO or FUD that may be happening at the time.
- What are your thoughts?
yemala
