Bitcoin - BTCUSD due to revisit lows once the rally ends
已更新
Bitcoin's bear market rally shows the first signs of weakness and exhaustion. We still pay close attention to 20-day and 50-day SMAs; in the short-term, BTCUSD may attempt to retrace toward these levels (before breaking down and revisiting lows). Accordingly, we remain neutral/slightly bullish in the short-term. However, in the long-term, we remain bearish. Therefore, we will look for clues hinting at the rally's end.
Fundamental factors
Bearish fundamental factors continue to persist. The prospect of another rate hike by the FED in July 2022 diminishes the chances of Bitcoin's rally continuation. In fact, it threatens global markets and risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The same applies to the economic tightening, which will put substantial pressure on the economy and drag it lower. In addition to that, the upcoming regulation of cryptocurrencies will tighten the market conditions even further. We view mentioned factors as very damaging to the price of Bitcoin.
Illustration 1.01
Volume has declined over the past few days. That is positive for BTCUSD as it hints at the cooling off within the selling pressure. In the short-term, the price will likely attempt to retrace toward its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, representing a correction of the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside. DM+ and DM- are flatenning. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02
The total cryptocurrency market-cap remains below 1 trillion USD in valuation.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is in oversold territory. MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The picture shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Fundamental factors
Bearish fundamental factors continue to persist. The prospect of another rate hike by the FED in July 2022 diminishes the chances of Bitcoin's rally continuation. In fact, it threatens global markets and risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The same applies to the economic tightening, which will put substantial pressure on the economy and drag it lower. In addition to that, the upcoming regulation of cryptocurrencies will tighten the market conditions even further. We view mentioned factors as very damaging to the price of Bitcoin.
Illustration 1.01
Volume has declined over the past few days. That is positive for BTCUSD as it hints at the cooling off within the selling pressure. In the short-term, the price will likely attempt to retrace toward its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, representing a correction of the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside. DM+ and DM- are flatenning. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02
The total cryptocurrency market-cap remains below 1 trillion USD in valuation.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is in oversold territory. MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The picture shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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Our new price targets for BTCUSD are 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
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