Bitcoin has formed a huge descending triangle on the daily chart. This pattern has began since the all time highs at 19800$ and it's still in play until today. Last few days price reached the downtrend line and we are close to get a breakout to the upside. Descending triangle is a bearish pattern and usually breakout to the downside, but this doesn't mean that it cannot break to the upside. In order for the breakout to be valid I need multiple things, before I turn into bullish. The technical evidence I am looking at is the following cluster of resistance to be broken:
1) Break and close above the downtrend line on daily basis
2) The breakout daily candle needs to has a relative big volume (compared to previous days)
3) Break and close above the daily resistance level of 8500$
4) Break and close above the 50MA
5) Break and close above the 38.6% Fib Ret level
Now if ALL these technicals happens, how I am supposed to getting involved? The aggressive approach is to enter right away when all 5 of them happens. But since the overall
picture is still bearish I am not super bullish even with all these 5 technical 'proofs of bullishness'. I would like to see a HIGHER HIGH on daily basis before I consider any long trades. This will happen if/when we get a daily close above the red resistance zone of 9400-9500$. I am willing to ''sacrifice'' some profits in order to get a higher quality trade with less risk. Capital preservation is more important to me.
Last thing, just to be clear. For me there is still no major reason for being a bull here. I could say that I m getting less bearish the longer we consolidate at the 8000-8250$ area but, as I metioned in another post, there is no significant reason to be with the bull's side until we get some technical proofs. My view is still the same.
I ll keep updating this post, when we get some significant move.
1) Break and close above the downtrend line on daily basis
2) The breakout daily candle needs to has a relative big volume (compared to previous days)
3) Break and close above the daily resistance level of 8500$
4) Break and close above the 50MA
5) Break and close above the 38.6% Fib Ret level
Now if ALL these technicals happens, how I am supposed to getting involved? The aggressive approach is to enter right away when all 5 of them happens. But since the overall
picture is still bearish I am not super bullish even with all these 5 technical 'proofs of bullishness'. I would like to see a HIGHER HIGH on daily basis before I consider any long trades. This will happen if/when we get a daily close above the red resistance zone of 9400-9500$. I am willing to ''sacrifice'' some profits in order to get a higher quality trade with less risk. Capital preservation is more important to me.
Last thing, just to be clear. For me there is still no major reason for being a bull here. I could say that I m getting less bearish the longer we consolidate at the 8000-8250$ area but, as I metioned in another post, there is no significant reason to be with the bull's side until we get some technical proofs. My view is still the same.
I ll keep updating this post, when we get some significant move.
I ll be looking for bullish trades, but until we close above the prior high of 11800$, I consider this technical picture as a midterm bounce. I m still not convinced that the ultimate lows are in play.