Bitcoin update

已更新

Here we can see the volume on the way down was increasing a month ago, this time its decreasing. Just the holidays maybe making it a bit unreliable.
Alts are also better today than the past days. 3800 would be a small step, the levels above would be a bigger step.

I just updated this in my groups and channel. I don't have time to make a new analysis, i will do one tomorrow. So this is just a quick update, i have not really watched the market the past days. So i have not done my research yet. I would keep a close eye on ETH, it has been leading for a while now.

This was also a message i posted, maybe important as well.

For everyone who wants to trade. Day trading is not a real option now. Take a side, bull or bear.

I think for the bulls. If we go up, it will prob still be that second leg up, what we have been waiting for since the 3200 low. So dont focus on the best entry. So whatever you do, i would enter small in this range, and would only start to think bigger above 3950 and actually above 4200. So dont focus on a few hundred points while the end game can be 1000/2000 points. Dont be dumb money, try to be smart money. So dont risk your own money, only risk profits

And don't forget, volume on Bitmex is 700 mil, while it was around 3 bil the past months. So manipulation is extreme, as we have seen with those ugly spikes up and down. Probably see normal volume again tomorrow

There are some people spoofing again with sell orders on Bitmex, quite obvious. Usually always to push price down into their buy orders (or short closing orders)

I am happy to see that people don’t fall victim easily for the fake spoofing anymore :) At the moment there is an ugly bull flag in the making, but based on the breakout of the wedge, we should see follow through towards the 3900/50. The volume on the breakout is not that great though. ETH has made another good jump up, so taking that in account, things look better now. But still in danger levels, prices below the 3950

it did a nice breakout yesterday, but so far the volume is crap. So it's not reliable. The last push up got rejected from a small resistance line, which is a weak sign as well. Alts look good, but the market needs more than this. Bitcoin really needs to go above the 3950ish, for the bulls to feel a bit more safe.

Seems they are spoofing once again on Bitmex with big sell orders. They run away like little B's as soon as the price goes up. After each push up stops and slows down, they put their sell orders in again, up until the someone is courageous enough to buy in to their orders. For the ones who are not aware, spoofing is illegal in all the financial markets, except crypto of course. The crypto market embraces thief's and all other type of financial/digital criminals. Don't get me wrong, i am absolutely not happy about it, just stating some facts.

So the spoofing is as good as confirmed, showing they are closing shorts or filling longs. There is still sell pressure, we can still see price getting quick pushes down after each attempt to rally. But so far each Bart attempt is failing though. Alts keep improving as well which is a good sign. But no real breakouts though for alts. For bitcoin goes the same, also needs a break of at least the 3950 (previous high right before that big dump to 3600ish)

XRP analysis: Could be a good indication for the whole market.

Looks like some Bitmex bears are trying to push the price down. It looks like a squeeze is coming,. 2 Market sellf of 5 mil were just thrown in. It could be noise, but i don't think so. So either they win, or we prob see a decent rally straight through the 3950 to maybe 4100 even. So it looks like a decisive moment. Bulls need to hold momentum now and above the 3880/70

Bulls need to hold this support to keep the pressure on. If it breaks, anything can happen, including a Bart move

There is nothing aggressive going on yet, not from the buyers or the sellers. But when momentum drops, it's usually the sellers that take over. We can say that the target of the bullish wedge from the left has been reached already (conservative target). Some alts made a small breakout already as well. OI on Mex is decent as well. The only big problem is, there is still nog convincing volume. If this doesn't improve, even if we brak the 3920, it can still fail. So we need to see more volume.

So things have clearly weakened the past 12 hours. This lower high on Bitcoin is obviously not a good sign. Many alts show possible bearish wedges now as well, but the position their in are not the most reliable ones.
For Bitcoin it is likely we might be inside a big triangle now. So we could be testing support levels again coming day or 2. But it is important this uptrend from the past days holds.
OI on Mex is still slowly increasing, but no clear signs. Could also be bears trapping bulls and force a long squeeze.

I will try to write a new analysis later today. Just make sure, whatever decision you make, volumes are still low. So there is still a lot of noise in the market now. I assume because it's still holiday period.

If Bitcoin gets a good push to 3800ish, and makes a small flag there or simply just pushes through it, it could be the low is set because of that possible double bottom. But anything below it favors the bears. ETH looks decent now, better than BTC, already against that 3800 level of btc. So that could give a good indication

ETH looks good with good volume, but BTC seems to be dead with low volume. For ETH we will prob see a small squeeze happen above the 150. Probably needs BTC above the 3800 for that. So still bearish below the 3800.

So bulls lost momentum and lost this fight. Now we could see today's low get tested again. ETH looked legit with the volume increase, but it got dumped with just as much volume again. For Bitcoin it is important to see the 3700/3730 zone holds as support to keep the higher low pattern intact.

I actually told myself not to even look at the market until volume increases, on Mex to at least 1.5 bil. Because it has all been noise the past week. It just really started to look like something just now. Since ETH has been leading many times before.
We probably won't see a break of the 3650/3950 zone until Monday or maybe Saturday night around 02.00 CET, a time where they did some big moves the past month.

If you remember yesterday, where i said a 5 mil sell order was pushing the price down on Bitmex. Well we have seen what the result of that was, it was the exact high. You really don't want to get caught in their games with this low volume, so whatever you do, trade small would be my advice, or even better, enjoy some free time the coming days as well :)

Support of the triangle has worked as support. Now it's up to the bulls to hold the 3800ish. Volume is still low and will prob stay like that inside this triangle. Even though i want it to break up, i think chances are there it won't happen for another 24/48 hours.
While i am writing this, we can see the bulls try, volume is decent, but needs much more.

Alts need to get above yesterday's high. Making a lower high here could be dangerous. To prevent that, i think we need to stay above the 3800/3790. Below this level, alts weaken more and the danger of a lower high confirmation, like we could see for XRP happen for example.
If ETH can break that bull flag the coming hours, it could be a good bullish sign. If it doesn't break and drop below 150 (bitfinex), we could see the 140 get a retest

ETH made a real breakout, but Bitcoin got rejection from the triangle. Now the bulls need to hold this momentum and above the green as a max for Bitcoin. If they can do that, we could see a push up withing half an hour. Do not want to see it take any longer than that.
Volume is decent, but we need more. We need volume like ETH showed at the breakout.
If Bitcoin can break up, alts will probably improve a lot as well. But a lot depends on the current momentum. If the bulls loose it, it could end up like any other attempt we have seen the past week. I don't know how many more failed attempts the market can handle.