Bitcoin Preparing for a Big Move, Part 2

已更新

2 days ago everything was looking very bad and ugly for Bitcoin' and with that the whole Crypto market. I gave a few options and levels on the short and those were the following:

- A quick move down towards 6150 and a quick move up again, if this happens this all might have been a bear trap and that big move i am predicting will probably be to the upside.
- The current bear flag will reach it's target of around 6050, when this happens we will probably see much more downwards movement the coming period.
- Current important support at 6200/6250 holds and we will see a possible Bart move up back above the 6400, creating a higher low.

While we were starting to drop i noticed an imbalance in price of the different exchanges. Bitmex was 10 points above it's mark price (average price of Bitstamp , Coinbase and Kraken), which let me to assume some accumulation was going on there. When the drop started the price difference increased even above the 20 points, indicating even more accumulation. Based on this i gave again 2 options.

This is quite unique, so their are 2 options now:

1) There are some very dumb BIG buyers on Bitmex who like to loose money
2) These same big buyers are setting something up and know EXACTLY what their doing (accumulating) to push it higher at some point.

Even though the support of the bear flag broke, all of a sudden the price got allot of buying support and got pushed higher from 6200 to 6340. It became a reversal on the lower time frame. Instead of seeing follow through and a push above the 6400 and 6500 which would have created a solid buy signal on the daily (daily reversal candle), the bulls fell short and the volume dropped again. This brings us once again to a 50/50 for the mid-term direction. Because so far this move is only a retest of the former 6350/6400 support level. The bulls need to break this level and to really turn things around they need to break the 6500. This has to happen with high volume, doesn't need to be the volume which we would see months ago, but it has to be significantly higher than the monthly average.

A few hours ago the bull flag broke on the upside with a very small volume increase, that's why the 6450/6500 target of the bull flag has not been reached yet. Alts have also shown some upward breakouts on the low time frame, but there we saw low volume as well. These are signs of weakness, no doubt about it.

To know more about my thoughts and view, please read my previous analysis. For now i only have to add that we have an unconfirmed higher low on the daily, a break of 6500 is needed to get a confirmation. Even though things are not great, the bulls are in much better shape than they were yesterday. The 6300 is a clear support level on the short time frame. So the levels to watch now are 6400 and 6500 for the bulls and 6300 and 6150ish for the bears. I rather not give a clear view on my this time, because we are really at the 50/50 of a 50/50 zone. It can't get any unclearer than this. I am slightly in favor of a bullish scenario, but it's an easy one because anything above 6300 gives the bulls a decent shot. Below the 6300 i will turn slightly bearish and a break of 6150 even more. Whatever you do, be careful, volume is still very low which makes every move very unreliable.

Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

Previous analysis:

注释

Alts are still moving up during this sideways action of Bitcoin, which is a good sign. But still without real volume, making it unreliable.

注释

Open shorts have been decreasing since the we dropped from the 6400 to the 6200. This shows that at least some people were smart enough to close short positions. But since the move up yesterday the shorts have been decreasing as well but the longs have not really changed. This is not a good sign, because we want to see that the buying comes from buyers, not from bears taking profits. This volume is of course just part of the Bitcoin volume, but it does show us something

注释

Left is USD exchange, right is Tether exchange:

On the left (and right) we see a retest of the bull flag. But just in case, i have drawn those blue trend lines, showing a possible bearish wedge. Usually we see a fast drop when the support of a wedge breaks, but not always, Sometimes the acceleration starts after the retest. A break of 6440ish (Tether exchange) should be enough to invalidate the wedge and should increase the chances for move up again some more.
Alts are still looking okay, no big drops. So on that side we can see bulls willing to buy, but are still careful.

Open shorts on Finex are still dropping, but open longs are dropping a bit as well. Want to see the longs move up, but Tether might be the problem of that. Even though we got some kind of confirmation that the Tether dollars are fully backed, but it seems the market does not trust that information yet.

注释

Looking at the alts, even though the volume is still not convincing, they most of them made very good moves up now. Showing some real follow through, while Bitcoin is still at it's current level. This is usually what we want to see, a stable Bitcoin price while Alt coins move up. So things look better than they did yesterday.

注释

Looking better again, looks like that possible wedge is not valid anymore. A good solid break of yesterday's high would invalidate the wedge completely.

注释

It is starting to look/feel like we have entered a new era of Bitcoin movement. What is looking like slow sideways movement, is probably just the way it is nowadays. Meaning same moves as months ago, but in slow motion.

The bulls fell short with their attempt to break yesterday's high, so creating a possible lower high on this time frame. Don't know what pattern this might be, but on the left i have drawn a possible triangle. Anyway, if the price falls below the green support (today's low), the lower high will get confirmed and we will probably retest the 6300ish again. For the bulls the red zone is the level to break for now.

So it looks like that bearish wedge on the right chart is still in play.

注释

Before i forget, it's already weekend, so don't expect any big moves

注释

Tether is making a move again (up) and Bitcoin prices react by dropping. Bitfinex is dropping much more because it's a Tether exchange and looks like it's following the path of that bearish wedge now. It did make a small bounce from exactly that green support (support levels of the bull flag earlier this week). The lower highs are confirmed now on this time frame, which is not a huge sign, but the bullish momentum we had is gone again.

Positive thing to add here, price difference has dropped to 30 points, which shows confidence.

注释

So i would keep an eye on the 6300ish on the USD exchanges, if that one breaks it would mean bulls are loosing control again. Since they held that level very good earlier this week

注释

Don't know yet what to make of it, if it's real or fake volume, but the past few hours the 6340ish (also that green zone on the right) on Finex is getting defended by some big buy orders who buy away those sell walls.

Volume on Bitmex is much 30% higher today than the past 3 Saturday's, but volume on Saturday is usually half of weekdays on Bitmex. During the sideways movement volume on Mex showed around 350 mil daily volume. Meaning if it would follow it's volume trend, volume today should be around 250 mil but instead it's double. Could mean nothing at all, but it's different than usual.

Tether is still moving up and did not get a quick dump like we usually see the past weeks. So it might just be moving up towards the $1.00 this time.

Alts are slowly moving down again with some still way above the bull flag support (for bitcoin it's the 6310/6300 level) and some already testing it. So not much info from that.

Seems like we just need to be patient and see what happens next. What we can assume though, is a break of 6330/6340 on Bitfinex will probably make the price drop even more. Best advice i can give is, take a break and enjoy the weekend :)

注释

With a sideways Bitcoin, the alts have made another jump up. But Tether is dropping AGAIN, even though it's still very small, i think it might play a role. BCH made a very big jump even, wondering if Tether money is moving to BCH this time as a safe haven? Tether should be back at 1.00x by now, wonder if that published news from Tether is somewhat fake or incomplete, because it's quite obvious someone in the market knows more about it.

Bitcoin seems to have broken out of a wedge on the upside, but without any convincing volume though, so not meaningful on that part. Assuming Tether won't drop more and Alts keep being this bullish, it will be a matter of time until Bitcoin follows

注释

Hidden buy wall on Bitfinex at 6411

注释

Just noticed it, so don't know how big it was, but already gone.

注释

Funny thing though, don't think i have ever seen that Bitmex price does not get allot of selling when pressure when Bitfinex shows a hidden buy wall. Every time a buy wall would show up i would see immediate selling on Bitmex.

Instead, Bitfinex price dropped from 6411 to 6390 and Bitmex price did not drop 5 points. So 2 options here, either something strange is going on or the people who used to do the above, are not in the market anymore. Looking at the 80/90% volume drop on Bitmex, that might just be the case.

注释

Looks like we have a range at Bitcoin Tether exchanges now. From the looks of it we can see a slow steady attempt to move up again. So far so good, but the previous highs need to break, if that happens we might see a move up to 6500ish.

I will post a new analysis later today

注释

Now it has become clear that the support i noticed yesterday on Bitfinex around 6340 has been a force to push the price higher eventually. Very good sign that we broke the 6400 so easily. But we are not there yet, i really want to see the 6500 break, otherwise it could just as easily drop again after hours of slow sideways action as we have seen the past few months.
Alts are moving very good now, so broke important resistance levels already and some are still below it. Things are looking good at the moment.

注释

Chart i made earlier today but did not have time to finish thinking we won't see any movement before Asia opens :)

I will try to write a new analysis in the next few hours.