With the bullish cycle expired and the uptrend line now broken, I expect a A - E correction down to the former all time high area around $4900. This is only a model using market structure data, and so anything can happen. VPVR suggests no lower than $5100. Also news can make price move more quickly to its final destination. It should be noted that A - E patterns are usually part of a longer downtrend, but I find A - C patterns simply don't address the complexity of Bitcoin corrections.
***I'll update this thread with both long and short ideas.
If you look back at the data you will notice the A - E correction patterns Bitcoin has performed in previous corrections. You will also note that A - D are usually above a trend line set by the latest structural wave, and that E usually drops below a longer term trend line set by previous structural waves, so it becomes "extended."
If you switch to log scale, you may see that the current destination for a normal correction, E, could breach a secular bull trend line - although the major trend line is still intact. Its not clear what kind of support will be waiting down there this time around, if we even get there because of this, or if we are looking at a deep correction. It kinda boils down to game theory, but I don't reveal that kind of thinking here.
As for timing, the cycles are getting compressed, so volatility will be picking up pretty hard as we go forward. Lots of capital can be made, and some traders wait explicitly for increased volatility because more profit can be made during those times than during earlier stages of secular runs. Seeing $1000 swings will become more normal, so trade carefully. Remember that stop-losses are not guaranteed, and experienced traders know there is usually a spread to live with when using those. In other words, an automatic order could very well sell or buy at 5 to 10% above or below asking price.
Cheers and GLWT!
-Erik
***I'll update this thread with both long and short ideas.
If you look back at the data you will notice the A - E correction patterns Bitcoin has performed in previous corrections. You will also note that A - D are usually above a trend line set by the latest structural wave, and that E usually drops below a longer term trend line set by previous structural waves, so it becomes "extended."
If you switch to log scale, you may see that the current destination for a normal correction, E, could breach a secular bull trend line - although the major trend line is still intact. Its not clear what kind of support will be waiting down there this time around, if we even get there because of this, or if we are looking at a deep correction. It kinda boils down to game theory, but I don't reveal that kind of thinking here.
As for timing, the cycles are getting compressed, so volatility will be picking up pretty hard as we go forward. Lots of capital can be made, and some traders wait explicitly for increased volatility because more profit can be made during those times than during earlier stages of secular runs. Seeing $1000 swings will become more normal, so trade carefully. Remember that stop-losses are not guaranteed, and experienced traders know there is usually a spread to live with when using those. In other words, an automatic order could very well sell or buy at 5 to 10% above or below asking price.
Cheers and GLWT!
-Erik
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First idea, counter-cyclical long trade? :)
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Attention please! We are kissing the big fibo support and structural trendline. This is a make it or break it moment. I think it will bounce hard to the upside, crashing Bitcoin Cash, maybe?
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Reversal bounce off the support at $5400. Thats bullish
Bull flag?
Bull flag?
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交易结束：到达目标:
RSI is kinda high on the 4HR...hmmm
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HIT FLAG TP! We are now kissing the top line of the big rising wedge...this is a make it or break it level!
交易开始:
Shorting time! The trendlines above can be used as confirmation.
交易结束：到达止损
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Tiny reversal?
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Its bullish! Skip the rest of the correction? lol
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LOL
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Usually I buy the breakout, but something strange about this one...
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Aha! On this TF its bearish as we couldn't break the ATH, so we could visit the big rising wedge line...
On the other TFs its still really bullish, but we are in a reversal zone so anything can happen. $5100 to $4900 could still happen.
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Trend exhaustion?
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A few reasons why I am not going long BTC at this time:
- R/R kinda sucks. Upward targets are there, but we didn't see a deeper three drive correction to warrant another, say, 100% gains. We could reverse soon and drop 50% easy.
This flag pattern is exhausting the trend, which we see over and over and getting smaller:
Currently we have a local harmonic completing, a monster AB=CD from $150 completing (I won't draw that, but know its there), and we trade in a three drive or crown reversal zone. Plus RSI is not doing us any favors. Trade alts or the traditional markets!
- R/R kinda sucks. Upward targets are there, but we didn't see a deeper three drive correction to warrant another, say, 100% gains. We could reverse soon and drop 50% easy.
This flag pattern is exhausting the trend, which we see over and over and getting smaller:
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Oh!
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I'll post a new thread later today:
