Volume went down nearing 2500, the bulls were getting exhausted. Bearish technicals: 1h bearish pivot, 2h spinning top, first 4h red candle close / double doji (indicating a reversal), 4h stoch was overbought and short term ones were exhausted, 1hour hidden bearish divergence on the RSI on that new high towards 2485, the 4h 2h and 1h MACD were pushing for a red crossover. Entry patterns: A 15m bearish head and shoulders pattern emerged as we broke down to 2400. Shorting the right shoulder around 2460 gave us a nice risk/reward setup of around 5.76. Exit liquidity was good considering the heavy sell walls between 2480-2500. This is my first tradingview idea that I publish, hence the hindsight analysis. I did take the short at 2460usd though. Before I did that, i closed my long from 2850, with two adds around 3200 and 3275. I have been trading virtual currencies for 4 years already, though it took me 3 years to finally see consistent returns. Since January 2017 I have been seeing consistent and impressive gains, realizing this will become my profession for the future. At the moment I am still finishing university, but it's tough when you have to set priorities. I'm really glad I finally made it through, it took me a lot of ups and downs but I never gave up.
As for now I will see if 2400usd holds as resistance if price goes there for a retest. I will hold this short unless i see short term strong bullish momentum indicating a reversal. I will be covering my shorts in the green box which is seen on my chart. My short covers are between 2275 and 2340. I will be holding on to a small short/hedge if the daily structure indicates a further bearish breakdown on which it might go for a retest of 3000.
As for now I will see if 2400usd holds as resistance if price goes there for a retest. I will hold this short unless i see short term strong bullish momentum indicating a reversal. I will be covering my shorts in the green box which is seen on my chart. My short covers are between 2275 and 2340. I will be holding on to a small short/hedge if the daily structure indicates a further bearish breakdown on which it might go for a retest of 3000.
交易开始:
EDIT: Looks like it might have fallen into a bigger head and shoulders pattern on the 1h. Shoulders around 3410ish, head around 3480ish. If this one completes by breaking 3360ish with force, then the new pattern suggests targets in the lower 3200s. If we drop down today I will still be covering atleast 50% in the green box. If we drop down on the new daily, the structure will have more bearish force which might take us to the lower 3200s. A good target to watch would be 3230usd then, which is the weekly open. If we however reverse further up towards 3420-3430ish, and if short term time candles are lining up bullish, I will be covering my short. So far still holding.
交易手动结束:
Price reclaimed the important 2400usd level on which I closed my short around breakeven. There are a lot of fundamental events happening right now like the segwit lock-in, difficulty increase, bitcoin cash,... It's better to spectate and watch what happens next. It seems like the bulls are possibly back in charge. Trade Closed.