We are currently consolidating upwards, after the most convincing bounce yet.
6k was a good place to bounce, being a confluence area of multiple horizontal levels, trendlines extending from 3k and 5k lows, with significant bullish divergence.
We are now in a rising wedge formation, which will soon resolve. A breakdown will indicate a retest of the lows. A breakout past 8800 would likely take us to 9200 and beyond.
The strategy I found written on a napkin is to buy the dip with a long bias, until that strategy doesn't work.
A retest of 6k is by no means bearish. A false break of the prior low clears out longs and gets everyone flat-footed. It is perhaps what we need, since the market lacks the contrarian sentiment to power higher.
Should we break up from here, a higher consolidation would perform the same function. It would be typical to toy with a large round number, like 10k - above and below would get bulls and bears excited respectively. We will cross that bridge when we come to it.
In summary, a retest of lows cannot be ruled out, but I keep a long bias.
6k was a good place to bounce, being a confluence area of multiple horizontal levels, trendlines extending from 3k and 5k lows, with significant bullish divergence.
We are now in a rising wedge formation, which will soon resolve. A breakdown will indicate a retest of the lows. A breakout past 8800 would likely take us to 9200 and beyond.
The strategy I found written on a napkin is to buy the dip with a long bias, until that strategy doesn't work.
A retest of 6k is by no means bearish. A false break of the prior low clears out longs and gets everyone flat-footed. It is perhaps what we need, since the market lacks the contrarian sentiment to power higher.
Should we break up from here, a higher consolidation would perform the same function. It would be typical to toy with a large round number, like 10k - above and below would get bulls and bears excited respectively. We will cross that bridge when we come to it.
In summary, a retest of lows cannot be ruled out, but I keep a long bias.