BTC Perfect Elliott Wave Zigzag With Terminal Wave-C

11月18日

BTC has formed into a near-perfect zigzag with a near-perfect terminal wave-C.

Highest Degree (Zigzag pattern):

• Wave-C = A+B in time
  
• Wave-C is the most complex and time consuming part of the pattern (common for terminal impulses)
  
• There's clear alternation in time/price for all waves
  
• Wave-B retraced <0.618% of wave-A (required for zigzags)
  
• Channeling confirms end of all waves clearly
  

Wave-C (Terminal pattern):

• Wave-3 = 1.382 * Wave-1 in price (common in 5th wave extensions)
  
• Wave-3 = (Wave-1+Wave-2)0.5 in time
  
• Wave-4 = ~1.618 * Wave-2
  
• Wave-4 = ~(Wave-2+Wave-3) in time,
  
• Wave-4 alternates with wave-2 in price/time
  
• Wave-5 = 1.618(Wave-3) in price
  
• Wave-5 = (Wave-3+Wave-4) in time
  
• Channels as an expanding wedge, expected for 5th-wave extensions
  

Sentiment indicators are also reading near all time lows, as low as it was during the covid lows and FTX lows.

Given this setup as an isolated pattern, and with the high probability Bitcoin is towards the middle of a long-term pattern, this is a strong setup for a move towards ATH.

To confirm it, we should see wave-C being full retraced in less than half the time it took to form.

11月21日

交易结束：到达止损

Since this bounced then retraced back to the entry point, I was stopped out for 0 pnl. The count isn't technically invalid yet but is seeming more unlikely, and the long-term bearish counts that I have are probably the most likely now.

I'd still give this chart a couple more days to bounce before labeling it totally invalid, because it's still within the price/time target for wave-C and terminal wave-5. After a few days or lower than 82k, it's gone too far to be considered supplemental price action.

However, I wouldn't consider re-entering here unless there was a clear bottom signal which we haven't seen yet.

11月21日

注释

Do or die time for this count, either it bounces here and we see a very strong V-shaped recovery, or we have to scrap this count and fall back to the longer-term count which has us falling into a multi-year bear market.

11月21日

注释

There are now some VERY early signs that this is bottoming.

However, even in a very bearish scenario (like multi-year bear), it still makes sense for this wave to be ending around here. IF instead of ABC this is actually 1-2-3, then this wave-3 is in the perfect zone to be ending and beginning wave-4 (which will not fully retrace all of wave-3).

From this point, the only way we can be sure whether this was ABC (with a VERY large C-wave) or 1-2-3 (with an extended wave-3), will be to see how hard this bounces.

IF this bounces and retraces all of wave-C within 50% of the time it was formed (in other words, by the end of the first week of December), THEN we can confirm wave-C was a 5th wave extension terminal impulse.

IF this bounces here, and after half the time of wave-C has elapsed, it has NOT fully retraced (or at least NOT retraced more than 61.8% of wave-C), THEN we can be relatively sure that wave-C was actually wave-3, and wave-4 is forming and we'll keep going lower for a LONG time.

17小时前

注释

So far, this has retraced too slowly to confirm the terminal impulse. However, a new possibility has emerged, the final spike down on December 1st could very well have been a 5th wave failure.

This would require moving things around a little bit like the right side chart shows. Wave-B ends a little later, and the extended wave of wave-C is the 3rd wave instead of the 5th wave. This now makes a lot more sense because of the failed terminal, and that wave-1 of C (on the left side chart) was a little too weak to have started a new wave down. It makes more sense that the violent wave-1 (on the right side chart) was actually the beginning of wave-C.

Also the Dec 1st down spike makes more sense as wave-5, because there usually shouldn't be such a violent and relatively large spike down in a 4th wave (though not totally impossible). It was also retraced faster than it was formed, creating a nice early confirmation of the end of wave-C. The fact that wave-1 and wave-5 are nearly identical in price, time and complexity is also a strong sign of a 5th-wave failure.

Also on the left chart, wave-3 can't really be counted as anything other than a terminal because of overlapping 2 and 4 waves, which is illogical because a terminal needs to end a pattern and can't be followed by a 4th-wave. However, it may just need to be "forced" from a higher timeframe. But for that reason I think the left side count is less likely than the right side count, which doesn't violate any rules and actually follows virtually every rule and guideline.

From here, we should see all of wave-C retraced before the end of the year if the right side count ends up being correct. Given that a 5th wave failure implies a lot of counter trend strength, it may happen much sooner than the end of the year (this is also why the 5th-wave failure can NOT be part of a larger downward impulsive move like the left side chart has, and in this position it MUST be part of an ABC. For a 5th wave failure to be correct, the ENTIRE impulsive move that it is part of must be fully retraced!)

If the left side count is correct wave-4 still probably has another week or so before it ends, and it shouldn't retrace wave-3 by more than 61.8%, and it would likely relate to wave-2 by 161.8% in price and half the time of waves 2+3 (grey box).