Here is an overview of the condition of the current trend in Bitcoin using Bitstamp prices.
The uptrend in 2013 was well constructed and had 7 months at its mode (see purple boxed in range with mode highlighted). The movement out of the mode/accumulation zone peaked early on and by the 7th month had exhausted itself. 5 months after the highest high was reached, a potential downtrend was setting up.
The downtrend is still in effect since there are 9 months that touch the most frequent price. I have boxed in range of all the months that touch the mode from the time of the highest high. I start counting from the time there is an entire range below the mode and mark that range as "bar 1". There are two more months to go in the first 9-month downtrend that targets $90 and there are 6 more months in the second 9-month downtrend which targets $66. The last month was an "inside bar" which is a month that is weak and indecisive. So for the short term, the market is bouncing to find the sellers, which are sitting at the mode or most frequent price at the horizontal yellow line 436.
The monthly time frame has a massive range for movement, but the time frame and the construction of the downtrend are solid. Short term, the market relieving a deeply oversold condition after the monthly "RANGE EXPANSION DECLINE" in January. Medium term, the biggest buyers are down the the 90-100 level and the downtrend has heavy sellers at the 436-555 area where 9-months of sellers capped the long term advance in BTCUSD.
This is how the market is structured and I wish I could define an extremely low-risk entry technique for you right here, either long or short, but WHAT THIS CHART WILL DO FOR YOU is to GIVE YOU CONFIDENCE TO ACT, in size, at the key levels I have mentioned here, both the TIME TARGETS AND THE PRICE TARGETS. So, keep this chart handy for the next 12-months and put it up on your TOOLBAR for 1-click review. Label it BTC.M so you will know what it is.
Good fortune to you all.
Tim
10:22AM March 16, 2015 293.93 last +7.18
The uptrend in 2013 was well constructed and had 7 months at its mode (see purple boxed in range with mode highlighted). The movement out of the mode/accumulation zone peaked early on and by the 7th month had exhausted itself. 5 months after the highest high was reached, a potential downtrend was setting up.
The downtrend is still in effect since there are 9 months that touch the most frequent price. I have boxed in range of all the months that touch the mode from the time of the highest high. I start counting from the time there is an entire range below the mode and mark that range as "bar 1". There are two more months to go in the first 9-month downtrend that targets $90 and there are 6 more months in the second 9-month downtrend which targets $66. The last month was an "inside bar" which is a month that is weak and indecisive. So for the short term, the market is bouncing to find the sellers, which are sitting at the mode or most frequent price at the horizontal yellow line 436.
The monthly time frame has a massive range for movement, but the time frame and the construction of the downtrend are solid. Short term, the market relieving a deeply oversold condition after the monthly "RANGE EXPANSION DECLINE" in January. Medium term, the biggest buyers are down the the 90-100 level and the downtrend has heavy sellers at the 436-555 area where 9-months of sellers capped the long term advance in BTCUSD.
This is how the market is structured and I wish I could define an extremely low-risk entry technique for you right here, either long or short, but WHAT THIS CHART WILL DO FOR YOU is to GIVE YOU CONFIDENCE TO ACT, in size, at the key levels I have mentioned here, both the TIME TARGETS AND THE PRICE TARGETS. So, keep this chart handy for the next 12-months and put it up on your TOOLBAR for 1-click review. Label it BTC.M so you will know what it is.
Good fortune to you all.
Tim
10:22AM March 16, 2015 293.93 last +7.18
评论:
9 month downtrend ended and this month's "range expansion rally" is a great sign for more upside.
评论:
The low risk entry was breaking above last month's high, and then secondarily to buy when this month's rally was greater than last month's range. Since last month was a tiny range (246-223 or 23 points), it gave a buy signal when we went from 236 +24 points or to 260. The stop can be placed at the 225 level and you can add to positions at the mid-point of this month's rally (October's range).
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $10/mo or $100/year and join me in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
