BTCUSD: Slow Double Top May Offer Hidden Sign Of Strength?

BTCUSD update: Double top formation is attempting to unfold but I would not assert this conclusion yet because it is materializing in such a slow fashion, it is suspect in my opinion. This double top is lacking the selling momentum that usually follows which can be a hidden sign of strength.

When a market rejects a resistance level, especially a second time, price often does not waste time. It sells off quickly and that is not happening in this market. Not only is the bullish trend line still intact, but there is also a minor support at 10754 (.382 of recent bullish swing) that can hold price up for a subsequent higher low. These not so obvious factors point to the possibility that there is no real motivation to sell and all this market needs is a catalyst to spark the move to higher prices.

This type of formation is attractive to shorts, and can suck many in who do not realize that the timeliness of a formation is an important consideration. If I was short, and I was sitting through this lack of progress, I would be uncomfortable and looking to get out because it is not behaving as it should. This is not something you learn in a book, or some free video on Youtube, you learn this by years of observation and getting caught on the wrong side of strong markets. When selling happens, it happens faster than buying.

This does not guarantee that price will continue higher, and the possibility of the double top following through still exits, but the longer price stays above the trend line and/or the 10754 level, the more of a chance it will go higher. Don't be quick to judge a market because of an impression of a formation, instead let the market prove itself. Waiting for this proof usually costs you more in terms of better entries, or less favorable exits, but that is the price you must pay for seeing the market's hand.

Since I locked in profit at 10900 the first time it sold off from this level, I have reduced risk and still waiting for a good price to add more to my long. A clear bullish reversal at the 10754 level is my preferred scenario, other wise I will just stay with what I have. It is very possible for the market to form a shallow higher low off of the trend line and break higher, which is a valid break out signal. Why I will not aggressively add in that scenario is because I do not like buying into the reversal zone which has an upper resistance at 12429. If you choose to buy into that break out, the key to managing more effectively is to be quick to exit if a failure candle shows up while within the reversal zone.

In summary, TA is more than just indicators and charts. It tells a very detailed story if you understand what is "behind" the candles. And to any story, there are at least two sides, and you must always be evaluating both until the market shows its hand. Less experienced traders do not realize that when facing any market environment, there is a high degree of randomness or noise which leads to confusion and a lack of "predictability". The mistake many will make at an inflection point like that one we are facing now is that they will attempt to predict which way the market will go from here. We can evaluate the signs and consider the context to get a better idea of where the bias leans, and take chances when the reward/risk is clear. When it is not, it is better to let the market reveal its intentions.

Questions and comments welcome.