BTC Mid-Term Outlook: Key Levels & Wave Structure

3月31日

As long as March lows hold, there remains a technical possibility for one more wave up toward the 130K resistance zone. However, given the corrective three-wave structure of the recovery (rather than an impulsive five-wave move), I am now leaning toward the mid-term top being in place at January highs.



If price remains below last week’s high, my operative scenario favors one more leg down to the 64K–55K–51K macro support zone. If the downside scenario unfolds, it would still be technically valid for the entire corrective wave (2) to complete within the support zone mentioned, especially considering the underlying fundamental strength of the asset.

Should price break above last week’s high in the coming weeks, the odds shift in favor of a renewed uptrend, potentially reclaiming ATH and targeting 130K.

The super-macro structure that I'm following as an operative wave count, assumes multi-decades bullish cycle, with the next long-term expansion phase expected once price establishes a firm bottom in the discussed support zone:



Wishing you successful trading & investing decisions. Thank you for your attention!

PS: The wave structure of BTC, proposed in March 2024 idea, has fulfilled itself:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/QKQpcHd8-btc-volnovaya-struktura-trenda-s-noyabrya-2022/

4月3日

交易开始

Price has held below last week’s highs.
My operative plan for the possible trend structure:

Short-term support zones: 77.7-76.3K and 75.5-74.1K, with a target level at 72K.

As long as the price continues to close below yesterday’s highs, I will stick to this structure.

Yesterdays entries: