I've seen both descending triangles and falling wedges as explanation for recent price action but to my mind neither are correct. You gotta negate the blow off top somewhat. Triangles account for it in their figure, but the bear flag channel doesn't, save for offering the dump support on that heart-line, which in the triangles has no structural support.
We are not in a falling wedge breakout now because the "breakout" is too mediocre for such a dramatic formation. Regardless, a wedge can always reform into a channel upon breakout, which kinda negates it's wedge potential.
Nor are we in a descending triangle as the fakeout dump on that is too extreme to then come back up and resume.
What we are more likely seeing is a bear flag channel which retrace to the 61.8% fib at the top and dump to the parallel boundary at the bottom.
Triangles are a compression of bears and bulls with one side being the clear winner. We don't have that here because this is not a real bull market. Bulls are not trying to buy here to hold long term. Only FOMO buyers are doing that because they missed the rally. Smart money is leaving the market and playing short term within the channel, because they got in at 4k. They know they can get in lower. Sure they got hedges to the upside and downside and can add leverage if need be, but they are gradually removing their positions to take profits. They can't take profits too fast as that would ruin their customer satisfaction, they need them to think there's still a chance, so they scale out slowly to get the highest price.
A descending channel is a more long term move than a triangle that ends suddenly and crushes the market. Bulls (or should I say bears?) spent 5 months building this market to current levels, they don't want to instantly drop it down with a descending triangle. They want and need profits.
Since we have had such a long term uptrend, a long term downtrend would seem more likely to balance back to the mean.
Furthermore we haven't yet gotten to retest that critical trendline since we hit it at around 8k. If we don't break down through it one can then expect another bull move up. If we do... then you may see true panic in the market and capitulation.
Finally 4 hr RSI still never hit oversold. That suggests bears are not trying too hard to break things. They are carefully restraining any violent moves. This is a fine hand of manipulation.
Short term? Bearish
Mid term? Neutral / bearish
Long term? Bullish
We are not in a falling wedge breakout now because the "breakout" is too mediocre for such a dramatic formation. Regardless, a wedge can always reform into a channel upon breakout, which kinda negates it's wedge potential.
Nor are we in a descending triangle as the fakeout dump on that is too extreme to then come back up and resume.
What we are more likely seeing is a bear flag channel which retrace to the 61.8% fib at the top and dump to the parallel boundary at the bottom.
Triangles are a compression of bears and bulls with one side being the clear winner. We don't have that here because this is not a real bull market. Bulls are not trying to buy here to hold long term. Only FOMO buyers are doing that because they missed the rally. Smart money is leaving the market and playing short term within the channel, because they got in at 4k. They know they can get in lower. Sure they got hedges to the upside and downside and can add leverage if need be, but they are gradually removing their positions to take profits. They can't take profits too fast as that would ruin their customer satisfaction, they need them to think there's still a chance, so they scale out slowly to get the highest price.
A descending channel is a more long term move than a triangle that ends suddenly and crushes the market. Bulls (or should I say bears?) spent 5 months building this market to current levels, they don't want to instantly drop it down with a descending triangle. They want and need profits.
Since we have had such a long term uptrend, a long term downtrend would seem more likely to balance back to the mean.
Furthermore we haven't yet gotten to retest that critical trendline since we hit it at around 8k. If we don't break down through it one can then expect another bull move up. If we do... then you may see true panic in the market and capitulation.
Finally 4 hr RSI still never hit oversold. That suggests bears are not trying too hard to break things. They are carefully restraining any violent moves. This is a fine hand of manipulation.
Short term? Bearish
Mid term? Neutral / bearish
Long term? Bullish