BTCUSD is posting a fractal uptrend, that could also be charted as an Elliott Wave to my limited understand of a 12345 wave, of which we are in the 4th wave awaiting the 5th.
Corresponding trends -
1. the overall uptrend was 80% (wave 1), and 75% (wave 2), with 5% of each other
2. the corresponding .5 fibonacci retracement for each from the high was a 35% +0/-.5% from the start of trend
3. both points of control on local fixed range volume profiles was 19% (wave 1), and 17.5% (wave 2), within 1.5% of each other
4. RSI on both trends crossed 65 when the trends peaked, and crossed 40 when bottoming (if today's bottom holds)
5. wildly, both trends touched the .5 fibonacci retracement within 3 days of each other (62 days, wave 1/65 days, wave 2)
Incredibly, the previous first wave fractal accounted for today's news that tanked the markets (I'm assuming it was evergrande and joe biden's runny nose).
If this is indeed the 1234 of a 5 wave Elliott Wave then we are in for a very bullish run that should peak around late January in the mid $90k range. This also leads me to believe this could be the very bottom for BTCUSD.
Corresponding trends -
1. the overall uptrend was 80% (wave 1), and 75% (wave 2), with 5% of each other
2. the corresponding .5 fibonacci retracement for each from the high was a 35% +0/-.5% from the start of trend
3. both points of control on local fixed range volume profiles was 19% (wave 1), and 17.5% (wave 2), within 1.5% of each other
4. RSI on both trends crossed 65 when the trends peaked, and crossed 40 when bottoming (if today's bottom holds)
5. wildly, both trends touched the .5 fibonacci retracement within 3 days of each other (62 days, wave 1/65 days, wave 2)
Incredibly, the previous first wave fractal accounted for today's news that tanked the markets (I'm assuming it was evergrande and joe biden's runny nose).
If this is indeed the 1234 of a 5 wave Elliott Wave then we are in for a very bullish run that should peak around late January in the mid $90k range. This also leads me to believe this could be the very bottom for BTCUSD.
评论:
I'm not sure if this invalidates the fractal, but I'm close to calling it busted. The fear index is almost at 10, and the S2F model is still valid. DCA
