Hey guys. As you have seen on my previous Bitcoin and Ripple forecasts, I've been quite for the past few weeks and didn't call for a reversal once. This has changed now. I assume the overall correction to end very soon. My projected reversal zones are $7.300-6.900 and $6.500 max.
Here are my reasons:
- We have (almost) completed a whole corrective cycle. A clear with a 5-3-5 structure. We're currently in the making of the fifth wave of wave c. When price has hit 8k level few days ago, I clearly said, that I won't be entering or even considering opening any longs as price has just made a three waves structure - which does not make sense as we're in the bigger wave c and therefore need to see a five wave structure.
- I've been calling myself to look for a long setup on BTC at around 8k level for the past few weeks and I have seen tons of other really good analysts and traders I know myself calling for the same level. That has been before price actually hit 8k. So even if price hasn't completed a five wave structure once it hit 8k, smart money has begun entering again at that level - whether it be through opening a 100% position or by dollar cost averaging. So the smart money sentiment has definitely begun to change at this level. On the other hand media coverage and mainstream sentiment couldn't be worse now. You hear some people calling for a drop to 2k, 3k or even that this is the end of Bitcoin . This is exactly the same psychological behaviour/pattern we saw when Bitcoin has nearly hit the 20k level in December. Media coverage couldn't have been better and mainstream sentiment was incredibly positive. Every newbie was just screaming common phrases like 'to the moon' with no real technical or backing this, let's call it 'assumption'.
- For the first time in this corrective structure, we do have a clear showing up on the 4H - which again, is very similar for a fifth wave. Also the momentum is decreasing and not the same as it has been in wave 1 or wave 3.
- Some pairs - I'm especially keeping an eye on XRPUSD - are starting to slowly decorrelate from BTC . While BTC has made a lower low, XRP hasn't. Same as in November and December, some pairs might start to get more 'independent' and not following BTC 100% like we've saw it with XRP.
So, this isn't a call to long BTC right now - but my bias has definitely changed and I am awaiting a reversal to happen soon. If price violates the first projected reversal zone at 7.3k-6.9k, I'm looking for 6.5k. As for XRP, we could see price forming a OR making a lower low too. For now, a clear projected reversal on XRP is too early in my opinion, as I would like to see how price develops over the next hours.
I will update this idea, once it gets 10 likes. Make also sure to follow me, for updates and forecasts on other pairs. Safe trades and may the month of February turn into a good one!
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WRITTEN TESTIMONY OF
J. CHRISTOPHER GIANCARLO
CHAIRMAN, COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE
FEBRUARY 6, 2018
We are entering a new digital era in world financial markets. As we saw with the
development of the Internet, we cannot put the technology genie back in the bottle. Virtual
currencies mark a paradigm shift in how we think about payments, traditional financial
processes, and engaging in economic activity. Ignoring these developments will not make them
go away, nor is it a responsible regulatory response. The evolution of these assets, their
volatility, and the interest they attract from a rising global millennial population demand serious
With the proper balance of sound policy, regulatory oversight and private sector
innovation, new technologies will allow American markets to evolve in responsible ways and
continue to grow our economy and increase prosperity. This hearing is an important part of
finding that balance.
Thank you for inviting me to participate.